Bulls Have the Ball — Can They Break Out?by Tony Rago Our pre-market highs have poked out of the top of the range we’ve been stuck in, so now the question is simple: can we retest those highs and actually break out from here? That’s what the bulls need to do today. They want to hold 7,700/7,688 on ES and 29,750/29,633 on NQ, then push back toward the pre-market highs. Holding those levels on a pullback would keep the breakout structure intact and give buyers a chance to continue pressing. The bulls have the ball — now let’s see what they can do with it! We’ve been stuck in this range for a while, so I’m more interested in seeing whether price can prove the breakout than chasing it just because we poked above the range. Let the retest tell us what we need to know, stay patient with the

Post-FED Tape — Bulls Have the Ballby Tony Rago Post-FED tape today and we’ve got a big move in the overnight session, with everything looking to gap up here. This has been a recurring theme over the last several weeks: big moves overnight followed by more muted ranges during the regular session. Bulls need to keep the ball today and defend pullbacks into the key levels — specifically, they need to stay above yesterday’s highs and the weekly opens. If those levels hold, buyers can continue to press, but if they start giving them back, we’ll want to see how the tape reacts before assuming the overnight strength will carry through. Overnight inventory is very long, so the opening reaction will be important. We’ve already traveled a lot before the regular session even begins, which means there’s no need to chase the move. Let’s see how we open, watch those

FED Day — Less Is Moreby Tony Rago FED Day today, so less is more. My plan is to take a few setups, provided they show up, and then wait for the press conference to see if there’s an edge and anywhere to manage risk. I’m also perfectly fine with not trading the afternoon — FED Days can get very whippy once the market starts digesting the decision and commentary. Today is less about trying to capture every move and more about where we ultimately close on the daily chart. That close can help set the tone for the rest of the week and potentially the month. So be patient and mind your risk. Protect your capital — mental and otherwise! There’s nothing wrong with sitting on your hands when the tape gets messy or the risk/reward isn’t there. Let the setups come to you, respect your plan, and remember

CPI In Line — But Still Elevatedby Tony Rago CPI came in line with estimates, but it’s still elevated, and the reaction was very muted — especially considering CPI typically gives us a bigger move than PPI. Bulls need to get above some key levels today: 7,650 on ES and 29,333 on NQ. Until we see those levels reclaimed, there’s not much reason to assume buyers have taken control. With inflation, crude, and the other cross currents in play, this could be a tricky tape, especially with it being Friday. This is one of those days where I’d rather see the opening ranges develop before making any big assumptions. Let the market show us where it wants to trade and then work from there. There may be opportunities, but there’s no need to overdo it when the backdrop is this mixed. Don’t overdo it today! Stay patient, respect the levels,

New Contracts — New Flowby Tony Rago We’re trading the Z contracts starting today, and while volume is still coming into the new contracts, price may be a little wonky as the market makes the transition. Crude is over 104.25 as I type this, so in my opinion, that’s going to make it a challenge for bulls to put together much of a rally today. I’m expecting a range-bound tape, especially with the biggest move happening overnight again. The key for bulls is to hold 29,106 on NQ and 7,650/7,642 on ES. Today, we just have to trade what’s in front of us. Price may need a day or two to get back into a normal flow with the new contract, so I’m not going to force anything while the market finds its footing. Let the levels and opening ranges give us the information we need, stay patient, and execute

CPI In Line — But Still Elevatedby Tony Rago CPI came in line with estimates, but it’s still elevated, and the reaction was very muted — especially considering CPI typically gives us a bigger move than PPI. Bulls need to get above some key levels today: 7,650 on ES and 29,333 on NQ. Until we see those levels reclaimed, there’s not much reason to assume buyers have taken control. With inflation, crude, and the other cross currents in play, this could be a tricky tape, especially with it being Friday. This is one of those days where I’d rather see the opening ranges develop before making any big assumptions. Let the market show us where it wants to trade and then work from there. There may be opportunities, but there’s no need to overdo it when the backdrop is this mixed. Don’t overdo it today! Stay patient, respect the levels,

PPI Holds — But Crude Changes the Gameby Tony Rago PPI came in line with estimates, but price dropped hard, taking out the prior week’s lows with it. The move looks to be getting pushed by crude ripping into the $100s along with strength in the dollar. We’re coming into a big gap down, and bulls are definitely on their heels. A bounce can set up if ES can reclaim the prior week’s low at 7,618 and hold the NQ PWL at 28,927. Those are the levels I’ll be watching to see if buyers can stabilize things or if sellers continue to press. We have to see how we open and go from there, but one thing is clear: with crude over $100, any rallies are likely to face resistance and get sold until that pressure eases. That doesn’t mean we can’t bounce — it means we need to see

Bulls Will Be Tested — Stay on Your Toesby Tony Rago A close below the weekly pivot on ES brought more weakness overnight, taking us down to 7,644, while NQ came along for the ride and tested 29,333. Bulls are going to be tested today. NQ bulls need to stay above their weekly pivot and 29,412, while ES bulls need to reclaim 7,662 and 7,677 and then target 7,700. Those levels should give us a pretty clear read on whether buyers are ready to step back in or if sellers still have the upper hand. I’ll be watching the NQ weekly pivot for clues at the open and, more importantly, how that level lines up with the opening ranges. That reaction should help tell us whether this overnight weakness has real follow-through behind it or if buyers are ready to defend the area. No need to predict it — let