Election Day Volatility — Relief Bounce or More Pressure?by Tony Rago The NQ tagged its 200-day moving average and could be setting up for a relief bounce today. But don’t assume that means the selling pressure is behind us. Any rally could run into a ceiling if ES follows through with its own test of the 200-day, which sits roughly 150 points below current levels. It’s also important to keep the bigger picture in perspective: the S&P is only 4.5% off its all-time high, while the Nasdaq remains in correction territory. That divergence tells us there’s still a meaningful difference in the damage beneath the surface. Add Election Day to the mix, and we have the ingredients for a bumpy session with plenty of headlines capable of moving the tape. Today is about staying nimble and not getting married to a direction. We could see buyers step in for a

New Week, New Opportunities — Will Buyers Step Up?by Tony Rago New week, new opportunities! After last week’s big tech sell-off, the question now is whether buyers are ready to step back in and defend these levels. NQ tagged its 200 EMA, while ES has yet to make that same test, leaving an important technical difference between the two indexes. I’m looking for some follow-through from Friday’s late buying, with the potential for an attempt to rally today. The bulls need to protect the pre-market lows and, just as importantly, finish the session above the weekly pivots. That would be an encouraging sign that buyers are starting to regain some control. On the flip side, bears will be looking to sell into strength and push for closes below both the weekly pivots and weekly opens. Let’s keep it simple as we kick off the week. I want to see how

October’s Final Session — Bounces to Sell?by Tony Rago It’s the final trading day of October, and we’re setting up for what could be a volatile finish to the month. AMZN and INTC both reported after the bell yesterday, and the reaction was telling — both stocks sold off sharply on concerns surrounding AI spending, with INTC giving back its entire AI rally. That pressure could weigh heavily on NQ as we head into the session. We may see some rotation into more defensive S&P names, but I’m not convinced that will be enough to save the broader index futures. We’re also sitting right at a major gap on the weekly chart, which makes this an important area to watch. We could certainly see a bounce from here, but I’ll be paying close attention to whether sellers use that strength as an opportunity to step back in. My primary focus

GOOGL Shakes the Tape — Will the Bulls Hold?by Tony Rago The FOMC announcement gave us a muted reaction and more range-bound trading, but GOOGL’s earnings miss has become the catalyst pushing the market lower. Now the focus shifts to how the cash session digests those numbers and whether sellers can build on the weakness. One thing to keep in mind: hyperscalers continue pouring money into AI models, so the bigger story around AI investment remains a major factor for the market to process. For the bulls, the priority is defending yesterday’s lows and the 9-day moving average to keep this pullback from gaining traction. On the other side, the bears need to push below 7,733 on ES and 29,333 on NQ to put more downside pressure into play. Today has the potential to give us a more directional move, but we’ll let the opening range confirm that before making

Fed Day — Protect Your Capital Firstby Tony Rago It’s Fed Day, and with interest rates expected to remain unchanged, the real focus will be on the market’s reaction to the announcement and what comes out of the press conference. Here’s the typical pattern to keep in mind: expect an active morning session, followed by a potential slowdown in the two hours leading up to the 2:00 PM ET announcement. That initial reaction can be a head fake, with the market often finding more meaningful direction once the press conference begins at 2:30 PM ET. The key is not to confuse the first move with the real move. Let the dust settle and watch for price to confirm where the opportunity is. Today is about discipline over action. Fed days can bring sharp swings and elevated Average True Range (ATR), which means risk can expand quickly if you’re not careful.

Back in the Middle — Earnings Set the Stageby Tony Rago The bulls put together a strong session yesterday, bringing us right back into the middle of the broad range we’ve been trading since July. With major Big Tech earnings on deck and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting looming, I’m expecting some consolidation as the market waits for the next catalyst. That doesn’t mean we can’t get a move, but traders will be watching closely for signs of a breakout or another rejection inside this range. If buyers want to build on yesterday’s strength, they need to push through 29,750 on NQ and 7,777 on ES. On the downside, the bears need to break below 29,412 on NQ and 7,726 on ES to start shifting momentum back in their favor. Those are the levels to keep on your radar. The key today is to stay flexible and avoid getting caught anticipating a

New Week, New Opportunities — Keep It Simpleby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money! 💪 We’ll start by watching the weekly open levels for our first clues on direction: 29,268 on NQ and 7,690 on ES. Above those levels, the bulls have the edge; below them, sellers remain in control. For the bullish case, we want to see a breakout above 29,500 on NQ and 7,717 on ES. If the bears take over, watch for a push below the overnight lows and last week’s lows at 28,987 on NQ and 7,648 on ES. Those are the key lines in the sand as we look for the market to show its hand and establish a direction. No major news on the calendar today, but there’s plenty of news and earnings coming throughout the week, so don’t get too aggressive out of the gate. Keep it simple, let the

Sell the Rallies — Until the Tape Says Otherwiseby Tony Rago We’ve seen some consolidation around yesterday’s lows overnight, but the bigger picture hasn’t changed: the bulls have lost control of the tape, and reclaiming it will likely take more than a quick bounce. We need to see a sustained, multi-day rally before the momentum picture starts to shift. It’s Friday, so I’m leaning toward continuation of the current trend unless a catalyst sparks a meaningful bullish reaction. On ES, keep a close eye on 7,676 — last week’s low and a level where buyers may try to defend. If we see sustained trade below it, that opens the door toward 7,650 and 7,633. Those are the levels that matter as we gauge whether this weakness has more room to run. For now, this remains a sell-the-rallies tape until it isn’t. That doesn’t mean blindly shorting every bounce; it means