The Great Migration Out of Bonds

Hey trader, A colleague messaged me this week with a question a lot of people are quietly wrestling with. He couldn’t reconcile the list of problems stacking up in this market with how strong equities have been. His list ran long. Off-balance sheet risk in the AI buildout, geopolitics, oil, inflation, and total US debt all sat on the negative side of his ledger. My answer took three words. Wall of worry. In this article, you’ll see why that wall shows up in every bull market and why it rarely stops one. I’ll show you the capital migration pushing equities higher while bonds sit in a multi-year bear market. You’ll also get the exact framework I use to weigh the positives against the negatives before I size a position. Bull Markets Are Built On Discomfort Stock investors spend roughly 80% of their time below their previous peak in wealth. Only

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Bulls Need to Put Up or Shut Up

Hey trader, Stocks were down last week. Bulls struggled to regain lost ground on every attempt. Bears ran the tape on the momentum front…. …except for crypto and precious metals, which kept posting big moves while everything else stalled out. Tape like that frustrates people. It reads as distribution to anyone watching the index level and nothing else. Yet, the money never actually left. It rotated. There’s a silver lining among the bear flows in the immediate-term, and it has a lot to do with AI and the latest backlash. I want to highlight the sector gobbling up the capital leaving tech, and why it’s ripping with interest rates this high. But to do that, we need to see how current leadership is running out of runway. Plus the three things bulls have to prove before this trend is safe again. Bulls Seek New Leadership Performance Leader 1-week 30-day YTD

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Why Wall Street is Worried About Nvidia

Hey trader, Credit markets flinch long before stock markets do. That’s happening right now in a corner of the market almost nobody watches. Credit default swaps (insurance against defaults on debt) on Nvidia and Broadcom are spiking. Two of the most profitable companies on the planet, and traders are paying up to insure their debt. That move has very little to do with chip demand. In this article, you’ll see the five forces pushing those insurance costs higher. I’ll show you why crude oil sits at the center of the whole thing. You’ll finish knowing exactly which variable decides whether this stays a scare or turns into a real credit event. What The Insurance Market Is Telling You A credit default swap is insurance on corporate debt. The buyer pays a premium. The seller covers the loss if the borrower fails to pay. The premium moves with perceived risk. Rising

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Bears Siphon Off Energy

Hey trader, The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs last week. The Nasdaq and Dow were nowhere to be found. Thursday’s close of 7,798.99 marked the 27th record close of 2026 for the S&P 500. The Dow finished the week in the red. The Nasdaq Composite eked out a fractional gain. Momentum is taking a breather. The undercurrents keep moving. Last week the bears showed they were down and not out. If they can hold their ground this week, I may even turn more sympathetic to their case. Here is what you’ll walk away with: the sector data that explains this split tape, the macro cracks the bears are leaning on, and the one thing bulls have to deliver before month-end. A New Wall of Worry? Performance Leader 1-week 30-day YTD 1-year Sector Energy (XLE) Technology (XLK) Energy (XLE) Energy (XLE) Tech wasn’t the top-performing sector last week. It still

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First Software, Here’s What’s Next

Hello Trader, Software woke up over the past few weeks. Palantir and Microsoft dragged the whole sector back into the conversation. It is now going toe-to-toe with semiconductors for the strongest theme in tech. Here’s the part I like. The crowd still hasn’t figured out what it’s looking at. That gap between what price is doing and what people believe is where I make my money. It also buys you time to get positioned before everyone else catches up. So I want to show you three things today: Why the AI panic around software has it completely backwards… Which sector picks up the baton next… And exactly how I’m playing it right now… The Software Fear Has It Backwards The story going around is that AI eats software alive. That take lumps every name in the sector into one pile. I see it the other way. AI is the thing

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Surprise, Surprise – It Happened Again

Hey trader, Stocks ripped higher last week, with both the S&P and Dow soaring to new all-time highs. This came just days after another of typical media antics at the market bottom. We live in the Age of Information. There’s hardly an issue with the quantity, only the quality. I’m pleased to say that the market’s internal price action over the past two weeks was straight out of a textbook, but only for those that knew what to look for. Don’t worry. I’m going to lay out the roadmap for the next five days in this week’s Tale of the Tape. Tech Domination Returns Performance Leader 1-week 30-day YTD 1-year Sector Technology (XLK) Basic Materials (XLB) Technology (XLK) Technology (XLK) The strongest performing sector in the market last week was technology. Frequent readers of the Sector Leader Bullseye newsletter saw that one coming. I can’t tell you how many times

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Growth Beat Defense In Every Sector This Week

The battle inside tech Something is happening under the surface of the technology trade and most people are still watching the wrong half of it. Software is trying to take the leadership away from semiconductors. I have written about this in previous letters and the evidence keeps building. Chips carried this market for a year and a half, and every one of those runs eventually hands the baton to a different corner of the sector. Watch where the money goes inside tech over the next few weeks, not just whether tech is up or down. The rotation inside a sector tells you more than the sector does. Metals already turned Gold and silver have bottomed. I said it in the third quarter forecast at the end of June and the setup has played out. The dollar breaking down was the catalyst, and the miners have been leading spot for weeks

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Growth Surges With Fear – Who’s Right?

  Hey trader, Consumer Discretionary was the best sector last week. Energy leads on every other timeframe. A growth sector taking the one-week column while everyone is calling for collapse is the thing I’ve been waiting on. Here’s why that combination matters more than the Warsh headlines did. Consumer Discretionary Surges as Economy Teeters on Collapse? There’s a lot of negativity out there right now, understandably so. The momentum trade has gone through a historic collapse, and it took some money managers with it. Ask yourself this question – is that the type of thing you’d see at a market bottom or a market top? Both the S&P and Nasdaq have corrected for about 2 months. The S&P has been going sideways more than anything, but the Nasdaq managed to drop 11% from its all-time high. That’s a standard, run of the mill correction. Now, amidst all the chaos, you

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3 Trade Ideas for the Back Half of 2026

Hello Trader, I grew up in Michigan watching the auto industry get left for dead more than once. Every time the experts announced the funeral early, they were wrong on timing. They were also wrong on the size of what came next…. That same setup is sitting in front of me right now, spread across three sectors that almost nobody treats as related. Software, biotech, and consumer discretionary all run on one shared engine, and that engine is artificial intelligence. Watching any one of them in isolation hides the actual trade. By the end of this piece, you’ll know where the flywheel spins fastest. We’ll also look at how the catalysts line up for the back half of 2026, and where I’m playing defense. Positions matter more than opinions, so I’ll show you both. Three Sectors, One Flywheel Software spent the better part of two years getting punished on one

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It’s Too Late to Chase Energy, Do This Instead

Hey trader, Stocks kept correcting last week. It has been almost two months since the Nasdaq and S&P 500 last printed new all-time highs. Pessimism is climbing because the logical reasons for a pullback keep stacking up. Markets have never paid much attention to logic. Big tech earnings continue this week. Fed Chair Warsh also holds his second press conference. Layer in escalating geopolitical tensions, and the bearish laundry list writes itself. Here is what I want to hand you today: I’ll show you why energy’s grip on the leaderboard is closer to its expiration date than its starting line. We’ll also take a look at where I’d rather commit capital while the crowd piles into the obvious trade. Is Energy Refueling or Running on E? Performance Leader 1-week 30-day YTD 1-year Sector Energy (XLE) Energy (XLE) Energy (XLE) Energy (XLE) A clean sweep on the Sector Leader Bullseye leaderboard.

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