Hey trader, I told the room Thursday that 770 was going to be the line in the sand. Friday we popped above it instead… So let me walk you through what I got wrong, what I missed, and the number that was sitting there the whole time… Because there was a wall on that chart I should have been pointing at, and it was worth four and a half billion dollars. READ MORE What happened Thursday We spent the day in negative gamma. The 775 wall failed, we sold off, and we settled around 768 because that was the bigger open interest level for that expiration. The put vertical I shared closed for over 100% early in the session, and anybody who took it had a chance at 50% or better through the afternoon. Then I broke my own rule on the second one. I was sitting at breakeven with

  Hey trader, Yesterday I told the room we might slip into a negative gamma structure today. We did. And the reason I could see it coming has nothing to do with a chart pattern or a moving average… It’s that the walls move, and most traders treat them like they’re nailed down… So today I want to show you how I knew where the new one would sit before the market opened, and what it cost the people who were still trading yesterday’s map. What the last three days looked like Monday and Tuesday were not the short you were looking for. We opened firmly into positive gamma with a huge cushion underneath us. The negative gamma threshold was down around 745 to 750, which is a long way from where we were trading. Then we broke through 750 and we were off to the races. Once that happened

  Hey trader, Gas is over $4 a gallon right now with oil at $75. Go back to 2007. Oil was in a similar neighborhood and gas was nowhere close to that… Same commodity, same country, wildly different price at the pump… So today I want to walk through what actually changed, because the answer explains the best trade in energy this year and the reason it’s about to get dangerous. Ask yourself what kind of system this is We can’t build refineries in this country. EPA policy has made it effectively impossible, and we’ve had major closures on top of that over the last four years. So whatever refining capacity we have today is all we’re going to have. Now think about what that describes. A handful of players control the supply of something everybody needs, and nobody new is allowed to enter. There’s a word for that. We

Hey trader, Two Mondays ago I shorted a setup that looked exactly like the ones I’ve been shorting profitably for years. And I lost money on it. The chart wasn’t the problem. What I missed was the cushion sitting underneath the market. Which meant nothing down there was going to force a dealer to sell into weakness… So the selling pressure I was counting on was never going to show up in the first place. Today handed me the same structure on the same day of the week. And this time I called it out loud before the open instead of working it out afterward. I want to show you what a cushion is… How to see one in about 90 seconds… And what it told me to do this morning. The thing that isn’t on your chart Start with the mechanics, because the mechanics come first and the opinion