Brandon Chapman, Author at TheoTrade

Someone Just Hedged $113 Million Midday

August 31, 2026

Hey trader, Something came through on the Qs at 11:36 today that I couldn’t walk past. Someone bought 38,000 put contracts near the ask. Run the notional on that and you get $113 million on a single print. A print that size usually gets read as somebody calling the top. My first job was checking whether it was just a roll. It wasn’t. Then I found a second trade sitting at the exact same timestamp. Put the two side by side and the whole thing reads differently. This is what an institution does when it already owns a pile of technology and fully intends to keep owning it. That second leg is why I’m writing this up. It leaves the Qs easier to push down than up, and it stays that way out to 31 December. So what does this player see between now and December that has them paying

Why The Last Dime Costs the Most

August 29, 2026

Hey trader, A vertical spread carries a hard ceiling. Buy the 40 call, sell the 42, and $2 is everything it can ever be worth. So you hold for $2. It’s printed right there on the risk graph. Yet, maybe that’s not such a good idea. You see, that $2 doesn’t show up when you want it to. It exists on exactly one day of the spread’s life, and only if price is parked above your short strike when the bell rings. I paid 58 cents for a $2-wide IBIT spread. The next morning it was worth 97 cents. Climbing from there to $1.50 would take a significant move or a long wait. I’d be carrying full risk the entire time. So what does that final stretch actually cost to collect? Let me run the numbers on both sides of it. The Two Dollars Only Exists on One Day The

Nvidia’s 10% Drop Wasn’t About Earnings

August 27, 2026

Hey trader, Nvidia fell almost 10% into last night’s earnings. I measured it high to low with the drawing tool this morning, and that’s the number it gave me. A whisper had been circulating that earnings would suck. That whisper bought a lot of puts across Nvidia and semiconductors the entire way down. Then the number landed. Nvidia is up $15.76 as I write this. The expected move priced into the options yesterday was $13, so we’ve already blown past what the market paid for. Here’s what I keep circling back to. A good chunk of the buying that lifted the stock today had nothing to do with anyone liking the earnings. So where did it come from? Allow me to show you… The whisper sold the stock before the number existed A whisper is just an unofficial expectation making the rounds ahead of a release. Whatever this one said,

Someone Wants CRML at $10 Friday

August 26, 2026

Hey trader, CRML faded most of the day… Yet, the calls kept getting bought anyway. My Console alert on the name fires when a single strike trades 2,000 contracts or more. It tripped at 9:52, roughly 22 minutes after the open. Of today’s call volume in CRML, 44% filled at the ask against 20% at the bid. The easy read is somebody buying the dip. I think this flow is more specific than that. They bought short dated calls above the money on a stock carrying 15% short interest and a 63 million share float. That combination decides what the dealer has to do next. CRML sits at $8. The trade on the tape points at $10 by Friday. That leaves two and a half days for a two dollar move. What does this buyer see that makes those odds worth paying for? I’m going to walk you through the

CNBC Got This Gold Options Print Dead Wrong

August 25, 2026

Hey trader, Gold has been on an absolute tear the last week or so. Just before it broke lower from $4,000, it reversed hard, soaring back towards the highs of the year, leaving gold bears scratching their heads. Yet, with today’s modest pullback at the open, CNBC decided to blame it on a 100,000 short vertical call spread trade they said was “bearish”…except that’s dead wrong. For all the analysts and money they pour into their programming, CNBC misread the print. It wasn’t a bearish trade at all. All it took was one look at the Block Hunter Console to realize it was a roll, not a new position. But I understand why they made that mistake. So, let me help them, and you, understand how to correctly read large option prints using the Block Hunter Console. That way, you know EXACTLY what happened and why. The One Number That

Your Flat Day Was Actually a Loss

August 24, 2026

Hey trader, I kept circling back to one number today, so I want to show it to you. The session went nowhere. SPY finished up 0.1%, and pretty much everyone logged off feeling like they’d watched paint dry. Gold ran 0.9% in that same stretch. That’s nine times the move on a day nothing was supposed to happen. You could call that a safe haven bid and move on. I’d rather look at what it actually measures. Priced in gold, the S&P 500 lost ground today. Your position sat still. The dollar you’re pricing it in got a little smaller underneath you. There’s a reason for that, and it starts with the Treasury’s general account sitting near $1 trillion when it usually carries $500 to $600 billion. So where did all that money go? Let me take you through the plumbing. The Treasury is running a catch and release program

Where Gold is Going Next

August 22, 2026

Hey trader, Gold had another monster day Friday. It was up 1.88% on the session while the dollar got crushed. I talked about dollar weakness, Bessent’s bond buying, and the Yen all playing into the latest run. But now, something more mechanical is setting the speed of the move. Institutions have been buying calls in GLD the whole way up. That leaves the dealer short those calls. Every dollar higher digs them deeper into a hole they have to buy their way out of. My 420 target came out of that same structure. I pulled it straight off the open interest sitting 28 days out at the September expiration. Friday we broke it. Price pressed right into 425, and the map above that is not evenly spaced. So how much room does the dealer’s own book leave above us here? I’m going to walk you through the exact ladder I’m

Treasury Intervention Did This to Banks

August 20, 2026

Hey trader, The U.S. Treasury made history yesterday. Not liking the direction of rates, they stepped into the bond market yesterday to absorb selling. That sent bonds soaring yesterday…but it was short-lived. Today, the banks are bearing the fallout. Citigroup is down 1.02%… …Bank of America down 0.89%… …JP Morgan down 0.89%…. Makes sense if you think about the relationship between banks and interest rates. But I also found something interesting in the Block Hunter Console. Almost 10% of today’s unusual prints came through financials. That’s not normal. One of them was 3,030 contracts bought in a single trade: September 120 puts in Citigroup. That is a third of the entire day’s option trade in the name. And it carries a symbol, a direction, a target, and a deadline. Somebody is willing to pay for Citigroup at 120 by September expiration. I want to show you why they picked that

Why Do People Care About Crypto All of a Sudden?

August 19, 2026

Hey trader, Bitcoin has been a total snoozefest for months…until this morning. Seemingly out of nowhere, the cryptocurrency shot up +6%. Before the move this morning, someone dropped some serious coin buying almost 30,000 out-of-the-money calls on IBIT, the Bitcoin ETF. Normally, this is where I’d tell you that the calls forced the stock to move. But that’s not what happened. IBIT is an ETF that tracks Bitcoin. Those options are a drop in the bucket compared to the dollar volume that runs through cryptocurrencies. No, this was someone who made a well placed bet ahead of time. As I looked at the print earlier today, I realized I knew why they made this trade. It all came down to context. You see, the environment was perfect for this kind of move. All the conditions, from gold to the Treasuires favored a bid in Bitcoin. It may not seem obvious

Why I Will Take Different Sizes on the Exact Same Trade

August 18, 2026

Hey trader, Yesterday I bought a SPY spread for a net 32.5 cents. I closed it at an average of 95 cents. That’s a healthy 190% return in one session. Today I, went to put on the same trade…but at a fraction of the size. What exactly changed? One word – Gamma. I know I discuss this concept ad-nasuem. Yet, it’s the roadmap that tells you what the market will do BEFORE it ever moves. Today, it gave me an entirely different picture than yesterday. Yesterday, I had about $1-$2 before we hit a gamma ceiling. Today, there was about $7. Now you understand why I reduced my risk today. However, I want to take this a step further and walk you through the gamma map. That way, you’ll understand what I’m looking at and how I read it. Gamma Decides How Much Room Price Gets Every session I pull

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08.00	OJ & Mac \| Overnight review \| FREE SESSION 08.30 09.20 Don Kaufman \| Early volatility 09.20 10.30 Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30 Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30 Gianni Di Poce \| Macro overview 12.30 13.15 Corey Rosenbloom \| Options tactics 13.15 14.00
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14.00	Tony Rago \| Futures Trading 14.00 15.00
15.00	Blake Young & Mac Holbrook \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00

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