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We saw the markets take off like a shot in the wake of Trump’s decisive election victory last week.
You’d think this reflects widespread optimism about the prospects for the U.S. economy. And you’d be right, more or less.
But there’s another side to this, and it’s not making so many headlines right now.
Trump and his surrogates, like Elon Musk, for one, have vowed to slash government spending and bureaucracy. This sounds great on paper; a lot of people across the political spectrum list over-spending and red tape as big concerns.
But in practice… a move like this could lead to a collapse in demand. Demand is the not-so-secret sauce, the ace in the hole, of the U.S. economy, a juggernaut driven by spending. Basic materials is one of my personal favorite yardsticks of demand, and that sector has been showing some softness lately.
Now, most folks know consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of our total GDP. But government spending, for better or worse, makes up a full 20% of GDP. If that spending decreases or evaporates…
We’ll look at that in a second, along with what it means for us…
