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The number is in… and it wasn’t great. Today’s economic data dump showed growth shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 – the first decline since 2022’s kinda-sorta recession-lite.
One more quarter of contraction and we’re in a recession.
The markets know this, and they’re not crazy about it, and what volume there was was largely into selling tech stocks. (Nvidia picked up another downgrade, but that’s a whole ‘nother story.)
We got a 38-handle decline on the S&P 500, after the bulls fought back a little at midday.
I’m surprised it wasn’t worse. I mean, these numbers were bad. The ADP jobs report was extremely weak, too, and the cherry on top was a PCE number that showed inflation is still on the hot side.
There’s more data coming, too. Nonfarm payrolls, a ton of earnings like Meta, Microsoft, and Apple.
All this comes during a week when we’ve got a $150 expected move on SPX.
Let’s take a look at what that means, how we can make sense of the price data (the data that counts at the end of the day), and how to play it…
