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At the start of this week, I clocked a 129.03 expected move on the SPX. In a four-day trading week, no less. That’s massive. That’s just shy of absolute mayhem. That’s a trader’s dream.
Too bad we didn’t get it. Not even close.
Missiles are flying as we speak between Tehran and Tel Aviv and oil prices are headed north in a hurry. This geopolitical risk is sustained; this isn’t a flareup that’ll be over by Monday.
There are huge spending concerns in the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” and we’re closing in on the end of that “90-day window” of tariff relief Trump talked about, well, close to 90 days ago now.
Tech stocks, the secret sauce in any good rally, are coming under pressure now, too.
I’m not saying this to freak you out, I’m mentioning this because any one of these whammies should get stocks moving like greased lightning. And they’re not. They’ve barely budged. We’re in the tightest volatility box I’ve seen in a long time.
The fear is out there. My read on the VVIX says the smart money is hedged to the hilt. But we’re not moving.
Markets that don’t move for weeks at a time are dangerous, because it doesn’t mean everything’s great; it means risk is coiling up, compressing like a spring.
When this unwinds, expect it to be fast, brutal, and, for people in the right position, extremely lucrative. Tonight we’ll go over the signs and look at how to get positioned for the inevitable break…
