It’s Halloween week, the Fed’s about to take the stage, and everyone’s pretending to be calm. The market’s still grinding near highs, but make no mistake — this is a game of patience and timing. Liquidity is strong, momentum’s alive, and those who chase early could end up being exit liquidity by midweek.
Key Takeaways
Momentum stays firm, but patience is key
- The S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell are still showing strength, though under the surface, weakness lingers in industrials, materials, and gold miners.
- Traders chasing pops are walking a fine line — the next reversion setup will come from letting the market come to you.
Private equity and credit showing cracks
- Slow, quiet burns continue in names like Blackstone and KKR — not dramatic, but steady and persistent.
- It’s a tell for underlying liquidity pressure in credit markets that most aren’t watching.
Earnings storm incoming
- The Fed decision hits tomorrow, but the real fireworks are from mega-cap earnings: Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet report back-to-back.
- Boeing and Caterpillar will offer the clearest window into the “real” economy, while Apple and Amazon close the week.
Gold and silver: approaching exhaustion
- Leveraged miners (GDXU) have been crushed — down 50% since the peak.
- RSI and MFI are nearing oversold, setting up a bottoming event for patient traders ready to re-enter.
What I’m Watching
The big question isn’t whether the Fed cuts — it’s whether they end quantitative tightening. Liquidity remains the market’s heartbeat. If the Fed pivots back toward QE, equities rip. If not, we could see the first real unwind in months. Watch JP Morgan as your proxy for the financial system — it benefits directly from easing. Energy remains in limbo, and tech earnings will either confirm or cap this rally.
Liquidity drives everything. Forget the noise about inflation, deficits, or election year drama — the only chart that matters is the Fed’s balance sheet. If they pause QT or hint at fresh liquidity, the next leg higher begins. Until then, keep your powder dry and your stops tight.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE
