First of the Month Whiplash
by Tony Rago
Big jam job to kick off the new month — and then the rug gets pulled overnight. We sold off hard, took out yesterday’s lows, and now ES is trading under 6800 with NQ pressing into 25,500. That’s a notable shift in tone. When you see prior lows break in the overnight session, it tells you sellers were willing to stay aggressive outside of regular hours — and that can carry momentum into the cash open. Add in a VIX spike to 25.86 and you’ve got the recipe for expanded ranges and fast tape. Volatility like that doesn’t just create opportunity — it demands precision.
My focus this morning is simple: let the opening range show us who’s in control. The first 15–30 minutes can often define the day’s tone, especially after an overnight flush. I’m zeroed in on the 6,796 settle in ES — that’s the bull/bear pivot for me. Above it, buyers have a chance to reclaim structure and stabilize the tape. Below it, pressure likely stays heavy and rallies may turn into sell opportunities. No need to predict — we let price confirm. Stay patient, stay tactical, and most importantly, manage risk. Days like this reward discipline 💪
👉 Full breakdown is inside today’s Pre-Market Playbook. Check it out here and trade it smart.
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