Thursday, April 16, 2026 – Tony’s Pre-Market Playbook

Price Discovery Mode — No Ceiling in Sight
by Tony Rago

Another clean push higher overnight with both ES and NQ pressing into fresh all-time highs — and notably, NQ getting it done in extended hours. That’s important context. When highs are set outside regular trading hours, it can sometimes leave unfinished business during the cash session as traders look to either accept or reject those levels. Right now, we’re firmly in price discovery mode — meaning there’s no overhead resistance to lean on, just momentum and positioning driving the move. The question isn’t can we go higher — it’s how we behave around the open. Opening range is going to matter here. It gives us structure in an otherwise wide-open environment.

From a trading standpoint, this is where discipline really separates things. If you caught the move, you manage it. If you didn’t, this is not the spot to start guessing tops. Strong trends can stay extended far longer than expected, and trying to fade them without confirmation usually turns into chasing losses. Let the market show its hand — whether that’s continuation through holding opening ranges or a shift in character with failed pushes higher. Missing the exact top is part of the game; catching the right setup is what pays. Stay patient, stay reactive, and let the levels develop.

👉 Full breakdown is inside today’s Pre-Market Playbook. Check it out here and trade it smart.

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