The biggest earnings day of the year just hit the tape.
The S&P 500 has an $80 move priced in between now and Friday close. Today’s expected move was $40, and that included the FOMC.
Microsoft was bid heavily before failing. Meta is getting its clock cleaned while Google barely holds the market together.
One comment could end this rally entirely. If any mega cap mentions reducing AI spending on tomorrow’s conference calls, it is over for this marketplace.
Forget bullish or bearish. The only thing that matters now is the expected move and how much of it has actually played out.
In tonight’s video, I walk through every mega cap setup heading into Thursday’s open:
- Microsoft priced a $30 move and only delivered $15. There is plenty of room left to the downside before the conference call.
- Google priced a $20 move and is almost unchanged. Massive volatility is still implied heading into tomorrow morning.
- Amazon priced a $20 move and has played out roughly $13 so far. The remaining slop will spill into the open.
- Meta is the only mega cap approaching its $50 expected move and it is bleeding hard.
- Meta traded 430,000 options contracts against 15 million shares today. The options market is now leading the horse.
Tomorrow morning is going to be extraordinarily opportunistic for 0DTE traders. The order flow has not even begun to play out yet.
Oil is sitting at $108 a barrel and the market is treating it like background noise.
