Three stocks are running the Nasdaq right now.
Micron, AMD, and Broadcom are adding more than $250 billion in fresh market capitalization right now. The advance-decline line is negative even as the Nasdaq prints an all-time high.
The catalyst was Friday. Donald Trump praised Micron by name at a Suffern, New York rally, calling the company “fantastic.” By mid-session today that endorsement is worth $140 billion on Micron alone, as it joins the $1 trillion market cap club.
Micron is up 17% by mid-session. That is $140 billion in fresh market cap on a presidential mention that carries less information than a cereal box label.
Just run the math. Micron carries 1.1 billion shares outstanding, and 17% up gets you to $130-140 billion right there.
AMD adds another $40-50 billion through a 5% move across 1.6 billion shares, and Broadcom contributes $80 billion more from a 4% move on its $2 trillion cap.
A quarter of a trillion dollars in three names in one session.
But if you look at the rest of the tape, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows.
Financials are red, while energy, healthcare, and consumer staples are each down about 1%. Walmart, Meta, and Apple are all red, and Microsoft is grinding through another session of the nothing-doing run it has been on for weeks.
The advance-decline line, which measures how many stocks are rising versus falling, is negative on a day the headline reads “Nasdaq all-time high.” That is the line to remember from this whole exercise.
This is what I call a slop fest rally.
A handful of names absorb a few hundred billion in fresh market cap while everything else slops around trying to find a level.
The index running on three names while breadth is red is structurally fragile, and one of those three reversing hard takes the Nasdaq down with it.
Micron is the most dangerous of the three.
Up 17% on a comment is the same energy that unwinds in a single session once the call buyers run out of juice.
The dollar is catching a bid on the same day, which is a headwind for any equity with international or emerging-market revenue exposure.
If the dollar keeps climbing, which is my thesis, the semi squeeze environment gets complicated fast.
The S&P’s daily expected move today is $66, which is the options market’s pricing of how big a swing is coming.
The first tell that the whole thing reverses starts with Micron.
A 5% reversal off the high signals the gamma squeeze has exhausted, meaning dealers stop having to buy stock to hedge the calls they sold. When Micron gives back, the Nasdaq’s primary support leg comes out with it.
None of this means the market is about to roll over right here.
It does mean the headline number is doing a lot of work to cover what is happening underneath it.
This has been a traders market all year. If you want to know how to take advantage of it, the best way to do that is by booking a call with my team.
They’ll walk you through all our products and services and explain which ones are best suited for your risk tolerance and profit goals.
To your success,
Don Kaufman
