Gianni Di Poce retired the oldest rule in the market today. The Fed sits still. The Treasury moves the money.
Scott Bessent keeps intervening at the long end of the curve. Gianni reads those actions as liquidity by another name, not far off from QE.
His update to the mantra is simple. Don’t fight the Treasury in 2026.
The positioning underneath makes it dangerous. A huge short position sits in the 10-year note while commercial traders quietly build longs.
The 30-year caught a fresh bid as futures rolled into the December contract. Gianni calls that chart ripe for a squeeze.
Crude oil adds the confirmation. It sits in backwardation into April and May of next year.
Gianni wants to see crude finish the month near $75 a barrel by Monday’s close. The dollar and oil move together, so both point lower from here.
A softer dollar with cheaper crude is music to stock market bulls. Gianni sees no financial crisis while the dollar stays tame.
That backdrop keeps the burden of proof on the bears. The market has not printed a lower low or a lower high. The uptrend stands.
Everything near term runs through one name. Nvidia has gone nowhere since last summer while the rest of the semiconductor space ran without it.
Here is what Gianni broke down in today’s session:
- Nvidia posted its first up day after six straight down sessions. Gianni reads that as possible pre-earnings capitulation ahead of tomorrow’s report.
- Bonds are set up for a squeeze. Massive short positioning in the 10-year sits directly against commercial traders adding longs.
- Crude oil is in backwardation into April and May of next year. Gianni is targeting a close near $75 a barrel to end the month.
- Ethereum and Solana cleared their May highs before Bitcoin did. Ethereum bottomed in June while Bitcoin waited until July, which points to DeFi leadership and an alt season.
- Gianni closed the rest of his Amelyx Pharmaceuticals long on Friday. The second half of that position booked over a 107% gain.
Energy still leads year to date and over the last twelve months. That environment has kept a lid on tech.
Tech gets its opening this week. Nvidia decides whether it takes it.
