I sat down an hour after the bell and waited on NVIDIA. The options market had already marked the landing spot.
NVIDIA closed near 210 with an expected move of about 13 dollars. That puts the upside marker at 223, and the stock traded around 220 while Jensen was still on the call.
CrowdStrike did the same thing. It closed at 190 and traded near 207 after the print, sitting directly on an expected move of 16 and change.
Two out of three landed on the number. Nobody needed an analyst to tell them how many Blackwell GPUs got sold.
Here’s why that matters more than usual right now. The rest of the market did nothing at all.
The S&P 500 closed massively unchanged. Every point of that after hours pop came from earnings, not from the session.
Volume tells the same story. The S&P did about a million contracts today, and the entire options market printed 55 million contracts yesterday against a 70 million average for the year.
The advance decline line finished a pure 50/50 slop fest. The Nasdaq managed 155 points on a night the semiconductors could have run it further.
Bonds sat completely unchanged through a huge morning data drop. The Fed looks ready to raise. The Treasury looks ready to lower.
You’re stuck in the middle with a bond market that refuses to react. I still think bonds resolve lower before this debacle is finished.
Here’s what I covered in tonight’s session:
- NVIDIA closed around 210 with a 13 dollar expected move. The stock traded near 220 during the conference call with 223 as the upside marker.
- CrowdStrike closed at 190 and traded near 207 after the print. Its expected move was 16 and change, putting it right on the number.
- Salesforce carried a $15 expected move and ran about 25. That’s the one report that blew through the band.
- Yesterday’s options market did 55 million contracts against a 70 million average for the year. The monthly average sits at 69 million, so we’re way off pace.
- The week priced a $100 expected move. Roughly $63 of that is still unspent with two sessions left.
- A break toward 7,660 opens acceleration down to 7,511. That trapdoor sits 40 to 50 points under where we’re trading now.
We’re flirting with the upper cusp of the volatility box. I read that ceiling closer to 7,700.
Quiet does not mean safe. Risk/reward here is dangerous, and the market is hunting for a catalyst.
It’s not about where we’re trading tonight. It’s about where we sit when the bell goes off tomorrow.
