More S&P 500 stocks are moving against the index right now than I’ve ever seen. The last time I saw anything close was the dot com peak.
That’s a record share of stocks trading with negative beta.
Beta measures how a stock moves relative to the S&P 500. A beta of 1 means your stock moves about 1% for every 1% move in the index.
Negative beta flips that relationship. If the S&P 500 rallies 1%, a negative beta stock might drop 1%.
I first saw this stat in a post on X. I didn’t believe it.
I ran my own numbers all the way back to 1990. The data was worse than the post.
The share of negative beta stocks peaked at 42% on August 7th, 2026. It sits at 34% today.
The one year beta tells the same story. On that measure, 17% of S&P 500 stocks fall when the index rises.
That’s how sick the market is underneath. The S&P 500 sits right off its all time high. A huge chunk of its stocks are heading lower anyway.
A few names are holding the whole thing together. The SMH semiconductor names, Intel, AMD, Micron, and this week Meta are doing the heavy lifting.
Everything else is stacking up pressure. Here’s what I broke down in tonight’s video:
- The 10 year yield exploded to 5.1% today. That’s the biggest candle anywhere on the chart.
- Oil still sits not far off $100 a barrel. Even if it falls, diesel and refined products will take a long time to get back to normal.
- McDonald’s is getting pummeled. News broke today, yet the slide in the stock has been incredible.
- The Nasdaq still sits outside the upper edge of its expected move after Monday’s rally. The SPX has pulled in to about halfway toward the upper edge of its $98 expected move.
- The VIX sits at 15 and isn’t working as a great instrument anymore. Thursday and Friday still price only about a $61 move, which looks low to me.
Volatility finally started lifting its head off the floor into the close. I think the coming days and weeks get rough out there.
We’re on borrowed time. I’ll dig deeper into the negative beta data tomorrow.
