Sell the Rallies — Until the Tape Says Otherwise
by Tony Rago
We’ve seen some consolidation around yesterday’s lows overnight, but the bigger picture hasn’t changed: the bulls have lost control of the tape, and reclaiming it will likely take more than a quick bounce. We need to see a sustained, multi-day rally before the momentum picture starts to shift. It’s Friday, so I’m leaning toward continuation of the current trend unless a catalyst sparks a meaningful bullish reaction. On ES, keep a close eye on 7,676 — last week’s low and a level where buyers may try to defend. If we see sustained trade below it, that opens the door toward 7,650 and 7,633. Those are the levels that matter as we gauge whether this weakness has more room to run.
For now, this remains a sell-the-rallies tape until it isn’t. That doesn’t mean blindly shorting every bounce; it means respecting the prevailing trend and waiting for price to give us a structured setup. Be patient, manage risk, and don’t try to pick the lows just because the market looks stretched. Let buyers prove they can reclaim meaningful levels before assuming the tide has turned. It’s Friday — keep it disciplined, trade what’s in front of you, and don’t force a trade that isn’t there.
👉 Full breakdown is inside today’s Pre-Market Playbook.
Check it out here and trade it smart.
Until next time,
Tony
