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How My Spreads Beat 50/50 Odds

Hey trader, I priced two vertical spreads in XLP, the consumer staples ETF, on the same two strikes. The one that pays off if XLP…

Where Global Money Goes After The Fed Pauses

Hello Trader, Every bull market runs on a clock. The Fed’s latest rate hike cycle just gave us a good read on what time it…

How Often Your Spread Has To Win

Hey trader, Every option spread comes with a price. That price sets your required win rate, the share of trades you need to win. A…

The Backup Plan Behind Your Stop Loss

Hey Trader, Imagine having something that limits your risk beyond your stop loss. Plenty of traders only ever look at the chart. They never look…

The Only Times I Move My Stop Loss

Hey Trader, Tuesday morning gave the Golden Setup room two long 26s off the same 50. A break even stop protected both of them. The…

The Rotation Out of Semiconductors And Into…

https://youtu.be/pn5620t4Yuk The S&P 500 just closed the week at an all time high. Tech had almost nothing to do with it. The semiconductors took a…

The $75,000 Insurance Bill I Refused To PayPreview:

My multimillion-dollar house in the islands had no hurricane insurance. People think that’s absolutely crazy. I had liability insurance, in case somebody fell off the…

Why I’d Buy SpaceX At $100 But Not At $160

SpaceX fixed Starlink’s biggest weakness this week. If you’ve never used Starlink, you put a dish about the size of a pizza box outside and…

Macy’s Options Activity Signals Short Squeeze Potential

Hey trader, A big call buy in Macy’s (M) hit the scanner this morning: I want you to notice three things. First, the volume is…

Friday, October 9, 2026 – Tony’s Pre-Market Playbook

Friday Finish — Bulls Need to Follow Throughby Tony Rago Price recovered further from the lows overnight, and inventory is now long heading into the…

5 Stocks Built For Higher Rates

https://youtu.be/90I1dYf_JtU Today’s 30 year bond auction just flashed a warning. The Treasury had to offer 5.62% to sell the bonds, and demand still came in…

One Rule That Protects Every Trade

Hey trader, Risk management separates the traders who make money from the traders who lose it. Position sizing sits at the heart of it, and…

My XLP Trade Now Risks 4 Cents

Hey trader, On Tuesday, I bought a call vertical in XLP, the consumer staples ETF, for 60 cents. Two days later, it only had 4…

Why I Won’t Buy Goldman Before Tuesday’s Earnings

Goldman Sachs reports Tuesday, and I’m not buying it first. Goldman’s not going to have bad earnings this quarter. But the forward-looking statement, what they…

The 300% Trade That Proves Your Win Rate Is The Wrong Number

This morning I closed half a trade for roughly a 300% gain. I’m holding the other half, shooting for a grand slam home run, something…

Thursday, October 8, 2026 – Tony’s Pre-Market Playbook

Bulls Need to Bring It Todayby Tony Rago More overnight drift to the downside, and the pressure is starting to build. Bulls struggled to buy…

Why Bond Auctions Now Move Stocks

https://youtu.be/iC6hArNZ–M The S&P 500 stopped caring about economic data. It’s trading off bond auctions now. Today’s 10 year note auction went well. The S&P 500…

3 Trades I Just Laid Out On Schwab, With Strikes And Prices

Only one of my 3 trades on Schwab got pushback. This morning, I joined Marley Kayden and Kevin Green on Schwab Network’s Trading 360 for…

3 Ways to Trade Earnings

Hey Trader, The market throws a billion pieces of data at you. It’s like drinking from a firehose. Right now, I’d start with earnings as…

Wednesday, October 7, 2026 – Tony’s Pre-Market Playbook

Pullback in Play — Bulls Need to Defendby Tony Rago Overnight inventory is very short, with price dipping back to 7,833 on ES and 31,250…

How My Spreads Beat 50/50 Odds
Where Global Money Goes After The Fed Pauses
How Often Your Spread Has To Win
The Backup Plan Behind Your Stop Loss
The Only Times I Move My Stop Loss
The Rotation Out of Semiconductors And Into…

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Don Kaufman

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Market insights and trade ideas from former market maker Don Kaufman.

Brandon Chapman

First Mover Market Advantage

Spot institutional activity early and position ahead of the crowd before momentum takes off.

Gianni Di Poce

Sector Leader Bullseye​

Precision stock picks targeting high-probability breakout opportunities before they run.

Jeff Bierman

Man VS. Machines

A behind-the-scenes look at how AI-driven signals and human insight collide to uncover institutional edge.

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