“Trade-Offs”: The UK Sends A Subtle Warning
You have to love Richard Breslow. He’s a former FX trader and fund manager and he now writes daily commentary for Bloomberg that usually hits our inbox at around 3:30 a.m. It’s almost worth staying up for. We quote him often and today he didn’t disappoint. Here’s an excerpt: “After the BOE and ECB meetings, […]
Goldman Has A Simple Message For You: Buy Puts Now
One of the rather disturbing things about today’s markets is that the sellside is increasingly incredulous and confused about what’s going on. To be sure, you always want to approach anything the Street says with an appropriate level of caution – that is, take it with a grain of salt. That goes double if you’re […]
Ghost Of Kuroda Past Steals Draghi’s Thunder, But All Still Quiet On Western Front
This was supposed to be Mario Draghi’s day. See the thing is, Draghi, Janet Yellen, and Haruhiko Kuroda have to share the central banker spotlight. Who gets the most attention at any given time depends largely on the prevailing market mood and which one of the trio is perceived as being in the best position […]
Dip Buyers And Hedge Funds: Who’s The “Smart” Money Now?
Do you know what to do when US stocks fall? You buy the dip, of course. Do you know what to do when Treasurys slide (i.e. yields rise)? You buy the dip, of course. This is a market where “buy the dip” is no longer a derogatory reference to the knife-catching propensity of retail money. […]
“Crexit” Is Born: S&P Issues Dire Warning On $50 Trillion Corporate Debt Market
On Tuesday we brought you a full preview of this week’s ECB meeting after which Mario Draghi is generally expected to talk a lot about how the bank remains prepared to do all sorts of accommodative things in the event the economic outlook in Europe gets even cloudier following the UK’s decision to leave the […]
Assessing Political Risk In A Market That’s Priced For Perfection
One of the interesting things about being in the proverbial loop when it comes to market commentary is that you’re never really sure whether a given narrative is “real” because it accurately describes the current environment, or whether it only became “real” because the Street penguin procession all parroted what one guy said thus transforming […]
Previewing This Week’s ‘Main Event’: Draghi On Deck
Since it’s all about central banks these days, we might as well look ahead to Thursday’s ECB decision. This an important meeting, as it’s the first Draghi and friends powwow since the Brexit vote. Remember, the committee plunged even further down the policy rabbit hole in March when Draghi announced he would add corporate bonds […]
Fearing Housing Crash, UK Homebuilders Give Away Furniture, Parking Lots To Buyers
Want $26,800 of free furniture? Of course you do. And all you have to do to get it is move to London. As Bloomberg reports, “London homebuilders are offering to pay sales taxes, gift 20,000 pounds ($26,800) of furniture and the chance to win a free parking space as Britain’s vote to leave the European […]
Wild Turkeys And Teflon Markets
A long time ago, in a market far, far away, a bloody military coup in a NATO member country seeking European Union membership would have mattered. It would have mattered even more if analysts suspected that the siege was in fact engineered by an increasingly autocratic President intent on consolidating his grip on power. Why? […]
Turkey Military Coup Proves Once Again That Geopolitics Matters
In today’s world you never, ever, want to underestimate geopolitical headwinds when it comes to investing and trading. The more interconnected and interdependent markets become and the faster news travels between participants in those markets, the more likely it is that events in far-flung locales will have an outsized impact at home, wherever home happens […]