Jeff Bierman, Author at TheoTrade

The $1.8 Trillion Hiding In AI

June 15, 2026

Hey trader, The S&P 500 gapped up to a brand new high today, and everybody chasing it is buying the same story. The story is artificial intelligence. I spent the weekend hunting and pecking through the research. I found a number sitting underneath this AI run that almost nobody mentions. It’s $1.8 trillion. Give me four minutes. I’ll show you what that number is, and why it once ended three companies cold. $1.8 Trillion Sitting Off The Books That number lives at the heart of the AI super cycle. It’s off-balance-sheet risk, and that phrase alone should raise the hair on your neck. The hyperscalers are driving this entire AI move. They’re funding it with something called an SPV. SPV stands for Special Purpose Vehicle. Keep that term in your head. Where You’ve Seen This Before Reach back for the last time SPVs ran wild on Wall Street. Three names

Why I Refuse to Buy SpaceX on Day One

June 13, 2026

Hey trader, SpaceX opened for trading on Friday. The stock jammed straight toward 173 a share. Traders in the room were already calling it the next Tesla. They wanted to buy it and hold it forever. I watched this exact excitement around hundreds of IPOs in the early 2000s. Tracking new listings was part of my job as an analyst back then. The pattern almost never changes. The first day is usually the whole party. Here is why it matters for your account this weekend. SpaceX is moving in near lockstep with the S&P 500. Market breadth ran near 17 to 9 on the day. The whole market is leaning on one freshly listed stock. If SpaceX falls out of the sky, the S&P 500 goes with it. That makes the first-day story more dangerous than it feels. This piece will show you what day-one buyers almost always missa and

How To Spot A Real Breakout

June 11, 2026

Hey trader, This business runs one cruel trick on everybody. It shows you a clean breakout, then yanks it back the second you buy. It’s made a monkey out of me too. Nobody in this game is immune. The stock reverses $7 in your face. That’s the fastest money you’ll ever lose. The cause is almost always the same. You read the chart wrong. Getting it wrong compounds fast. You chase the fake into a zone that resets while you sit there. Now you’re trapped on the wrong side for six months. Today I’m handing you the cure in four simple steps. You’ll define the move, draw the levels, confirm the clues, then read the trigger. By the end you’ll separate a real breakout from a sucker’s bet in seconds. Step 1: Know What You’re Looking At A breakout means the price is moving up. That’s bullish. A breakdown means

Are Market Breadth Indicators Broken?

June 8, 2026

Hey trader, Numerous traders keep telling me their market breadth indicators keep failing. The advance-decline line points one way, yet the indices go the other. You’re not losing your mind. The tool is broken. Let me back up for the people who don’t live in this stuff every day. Market breadth measures how many stocks are participating in a move. Broad participation means a healthy rally. Narrow participation means a fragile one. The most popular gauge for this is the McClellan oscillator. It tracks advancing stocks minus declining stocks and smooths the result. When breadth is wide, the oscillator confirms the trend. When breadth narrows, it warns you before the index rolls over. That tool worked for decades. It does not work now. The reason is simple. The market changed underneath it, and the indicator never adjusted. I’m going to show you exactly what changed. Then I’ll hand you what

The Existential Crisis

June 6, 2026

Hey trader, Lululemon printed as low as 107 on Friday. The stock once traded at $500. That marks an 80% collapse from the high. The price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to six or seven. The company will still book nearly $12 billion in revenue this year. Its margins are still healthy. On the surface, this looks like a screaming bargain. That surface is exactly the trap. Cheap stocks are where disciplined people lose the most. A fallen favorite pulls buyers in at every discount. They average down. They get buried. This weekend you will learn how to separate a real bottom from a falling knife. The low price is a distraction. Watch the overhead supply instead. Watch whether the last bull has finally quit. I have watched this pattern punish good investors for years. Let me walk you through it on Lululemon. Cheap Is Not Why A Stock Stops Falling A

The Stillness Is The Warning

June 3, 2026

Hey trader, The market hasn’t moved in two months. I pulled up the S&P 500 this morning and ran it from March 30th to today. T here’s no volatility on it anywhere. No open air gaps, no window gaps, just a slow grind higher with nothing underneath it. I call this a sticky market. The price sits glued in place like sticky rice, going nowhere. A quiet tape feels safe. That stillness is the most dangerous thing on my screen right now, and I’ve watched it precede the worst unwinds of my 39 years. Here’s why it matters to your account today. A sticky market hands you no bias to trade and no cushion to land on. You can’t read it, you can’t trade it safely, and there’s nothing to catch the fall when it breaks. I’ll show you what’s sitting underneath this calm. Then I’ll show you the exact

Only Three Things Hold This Market Up

June 1, 2026

Hey trader, It’s the first of the month. New money is supposed to flow into stocks…but it didn’t show up. That absence tells you more than any green day could. You see, the buyers everyone assumes are out there scooping up stocks are nowhere to be found. People talk about this as a broad, healthy market. It is nothing of the sort. The whole tape rests on three things. I can count them on three fingers. Pull one finger away, and the structure comes down in hours, not weeks. By the end of this you’ll know what those three legs are, why the structure is so fragile, and which leg is most likely to go first. Get this right and you walk out before the crowd… …but get it wrong…and you’re the one holding the bag when the music stops. Easy A And The K Economy This market has lost

The Leading Indicator No One Sees…Yet…

May 30, 2026

Hey trader, There is one signal I trust before I trust the S&P 500… ..and it comes from an industry most traders forgot about decades ago. I am talking about the railroads. They are not glamorous. They do not trend anywhere. They just haul the physical economy from one place to another, and that honesty is the whole point. When freight slows, the railroads feel it first. The stocks roll over before the broad market notices anything is wrong. This is the heart of Dow theory, and it has been doing its job for more than a hundred years. Gianni and I discussed this at length during Friday’s session… …and it has a lot to say about today’s market. Why the railroads go first Dow theory is simple at its core: The transports and the industrials have to agree with each other. When both climb together, the trend is real.

Earnings Are The Ultimate Neutralizer

May 27, 2026

Hey trader, Zscaler beat the estimate today, and the stock dropped 31%. Modine beat by 21 cents and guided higher. The stock dropped 21 bucks. Abercrombie reported a buck forty-seven and ripped straight to a Bierman breakout. Same tape. Same day. Four consumer and tech names. Four different outcomes that had almost nothing to do with the earnings number itself. There’s one variable that drove every move. Miss it, and you’ll get neutralized every quarter for the rest of your career. Fortunately, I’m here to show you EXACTLY how it works. The Number Is Not The Trade Earnings are the ultimate neutralizer. They humble you. They put you in your place. They make you realize you’re not nearly as smart as you thought you were on Sunday night. Most traders treat the number as the trade. The number is not the trade. The expectation going in IS the trade. The

TLT Is a Trade. Not an Investment

May 26, 2026

Hey trader, A subscriber emailed me last week asking if it was time to buy TLT, the 20+ year Treasury ETF, at 84. My answer was no. The bond dropped further. This is the same trap that blew up the dip buyers at 89 and 90. Every leg lower brings a new round of traders convinced this is the bottom. Stick with me for the next four minutes. You’ll walk away knowing why TLT isn’t investable, what’s actually moving it, and how to trade it without getting buried. Oil Is The Tell What’s moving TLT day to day right now is oil. Not the Fed. Not the jobs print. Not the auctions. Oil backing off today is the only reason TLT bounced from 82 to 85. Oil up tomorrow, and the bounce dies. That’s the relationship running this bond right now. If you want to know where TLT is headed

	Today
08.00	OJ & Mac \| Overnight review \| FREE SESSION 08.30 09.20 Don Kaufman \| Early volatility 09.20 10.30 Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30 Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30 Gianni Di Poce \| Macro overview 12.30 13.15 Corey Rosenbloom \| Options tactics 13.15 14.00
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14.00	Tony Rago \| Futures Trading 14.00 15.00
15.00	Blake Young & Mac Holbrook \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00

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