Treasuries Selloff On Stimulus Hopes
Modest Rally On Stimulus Murmurs The stock market rallied sharply on Tuesday before giving up much of the gains in the afternoon. At the peak, the market was up 1.4% and it closed up 47 basis points. Rumors are swirling about vaccines, treatments, and a stimulus deal. Pelosi changed her deadline from Tuesday to the […]
Single Family Housing Permits Hit A Cycle High – No Bubble This Time
Redbook Recovers Obviously, each Redbook same store sales report is just one week of data, but some readings are very interesting. In the week of October 17th, same store sales growth rose from 1.2% to 2.5% which is a good sign because it seemed like the economy was falling back quickly. This isn’t a good […]
Disney is a Happy Place for Option Bulls
Disney Unusual Option Activity Report Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS) is still searching for a resolution to the closure of their California park. That hasn’t dissuaded investors and the option market from taking bullish trading opportunities. Although the ride has been as crazy as Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride, it has proven profitable. As the price […]
Is the S&P 500 Ready to Rally?
S&P 500 Option Activity Rally Cap I frequently watch unusual option activity and today saw an unusually large bullish trade made on the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY). Bullish? Yes, you heard it here first! While the activity alone doesn’t lead to certainty, it is an example of the outlook by some large traders. […]
Do Or Die For The Stimulus Talks
Stimulus Woes Hurt Stocks The stock market fell sharply on Monday as investors feared a stimulus won’t pass. We will find out if that fear is true on Tuesday. Nancy Pelosi set a 48 hour deadline for a deal on Sunday. Obviously, politicians change their minds all the time, but if Steve Mnuchin and Pelosi […]
Worst Holiday Shopping Season Since 2009 Coming
Holiday Shopping Estimate Latest data suggests this won’t be a good holiday shopping season. An extra $300 in jobless benefits per week ran out for many states. Plus, the labor market is weakening and no stimulus is on the docket. Furthermore, there will be more restrictions in the Midwest because of COVID-19. Even if this […]
Huge Increase In Speculators’ Positioning – Major Reversal
Selloff Continues, Albeit Mildly Technically stocks sold off because most fell even though the S&P 500 was up. S&P 500 was up one basis point, but the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 fell 36 and 31 basis points. We’re sort of in a selloff, but it hasn’t been deep. That makes sense because we are right […]
Highest Retail Sales Growth Since 2011
Very Strong Retail Sales September retail sales report was so strong, it surprised many. It seems like the labor market started to slow in October compared to September, but this was a good report. Consumers were helped by the delayed extra benefits that they got in September. Many states gave out $300 per week. Since […]
Euphoria In Nio Cannot Be Tamed
Small Cap Rally Stocks sold off to start the day, but recovered most of their losses by the end of the day on Thursday. Small caps beat large cap tech which is surprising because COVID-19 is getting worse and the stimulus is up in the air. Investors heavily invested in small banks even though rates […]
Economy Takes A Dive
Bad Jobless Claims Report Last week’s jobless claims report was bad. This one was worse. The trend is unsettling. Don’t look at the declines in continued claims because there are people moving off traditional benefits to pandemic and extended benefits. Labor market has stopped improving in the past few weeks. We will likely see much […]