Biggest Face Ripping Rallies Since 2000
Small Caps Cheer On The Stimulus Russell 2000 was up 1.56% on the premise that a stimulus is coming. Small caps will sell off hard if nothing passes. In the past, when the market rises in anticipation of a catalyst, when that catalyst happens, stocks won’t rally further. That’s rational, but it’s not always how […]
COVID-19 Destroyed Low Wage Jobs
Jobless Claims Fall It was a mistake to assume that in the 2 weeks California is pausing its initial claims transactions that their numbers would completely drop out of the total. That wasn’t what happened. They just kept California’s numbers the same, and included whatever initial claims CA had in the prior report in this […]
Market Lives and Dies On Stimulus Talks
Market Hinges On Stimulus Hopes & Fears You never truly know why the market moves in certain directions each day, but Wednesday probably had the most certainty as to what the market was trading off of. The stock market crashed briefly in the afternoon as there were some negative reports on the possibility of a […]
Better Than Expected ADP Jobs Report
Stimulus Controls The Market Speculation over the stimulus is controlling the market. For a brief moment, the futures market reacted to the presidential debate on Tuesday night, but then the algorithms switched over to following the stimulus negotiations. It’s fairly uncertain if anything will get done. But some lean towards thinking something will happen because […]
Stocks Always Bottom On The Same Day?
Moderate Selloff On Tuesday Stocks fell modestly on Tuesday. At times in the trading session it seemed like the stay at home trade was beating the reopening trade. However, by the close everything was down. It was an across the board modest decline. S&P 500 fell 48 basis points, the Nasdaq fell 29 basis points, […]
Stimulus Negotiations Set To Ramp Up
Fiscal Stimulus On The Docket On the day before the ADP report, we got another update on the consumer. By the way, the current estimate for September job growth in the Friday BLS report is 900,000. Investors moderately concerned this estimate is too high, but there will be over 600,000 jobs added. Moving on to […]
Banks Snapback After Being Tarred and Feathered
Banks Are Very Hated Bank stocks received a lot of hate over the weekend because of their bad performance last week. Price determines sentiment. There hasn’t been anything more grueling than owning European or Japanese banks in the past 14 years. In the past 2 years, U.S. banks have also done poorly. As you can […]
COVID-19 Caused Stay At Home Stocks To Win Big
Update On The Consumer September labor report is this Friday. Consensus calls for 850,000 jobs added. Merrill Lynch is calling for 800,000 jobs added with the unemployment rate falling to 8.1%. We are testing how far the labor market can improve without the leisure and hospitality industry. Sports are starting to let some fans in […]
October Set To Be Volatile Because Of COVID-19 News
Tech Leads The Market Higher The stock market rallied sharply on Friday as big cap tech led it higher. A bubble in tech isn’t going to go away until interest rates rise and the COVID-19 crisis ends. It would help value stocks and potentially boost yields if a stimulus is passed. Personally, It’s unlikely tha […]
Record Low Inventory Of New Homes
Strong Core Capital Goods Orders August durable goods orders report had very tough comparisons, but still had positive monthly growth which is a plus. New orders were up 0.4% which followed 11.7% growth which was revised up by 0.5%. That missed the consensus of 1.5%. Ex-transportation order growth was 0.4% as well which missed estimates […]