Near Record Euphoria In Nasdaq 100
Extreme Market Gets More Extreme The stock market and precious metals are on a rampage. S&P 500 is up 4 days in a row, the Nasdaq is up 6 days in a row, and gold has been up 12 of the past 13 days. Gold has never gone on such a run, so you can […]
Private Sector Job Creation Disappoints
Housing Dips Slightly Investors are obsessed with the latest data because the economy is changing faster than ever. This is especially important with housing data because official data is so delayed. We just got data on June and we’re now in August. July data won’t come out for a few weeks. It makes MBA weekly […]
Tech Bubble Reaches Even Greater Heights
Tech Rally Continues Nothing can stop tech stocks. According to a survey of investors, 70% think the big tech stocks will rally at least 5% in the next year. Only 13% see big tech falling. Only 3% seeing it fall 20% or more. In essence, no one sees a big decline coming. This is extreme […]
Consumer Spending Is Stuck
Survey On Recovery Initially, in March and April people were calling for a depression. Price changes sentiment, though as people got more optimistic as the stock market recovered. It was very difficult to quantify what was going to happen because we didn’t know much about COVID-19 early this spring. After the initial recovery data was […]
Speculation Like Never Before
Big Monday Rally In Tech This stock market is like a machine. The market started August and the week with a modest rally with tech outperforming. Rationally, you’d think this rally in tech can’t continue, but it keeps proving everyone who cares about valuations wrong. Specifically, the S&P 500 was up 0.72% as the big […]
Congress Still Debating On Stimulus
Back To School It’s tough to overemphasize how important having kids go back to school is. Online college isn’t an issue. Some people believe going to college is about who you meet, meaning if you can’t go it’s not worth it. However, there are tons of people waiting to enroll at a prestigious university even […]
FANG Dominates The Market: Can You Go Long Anything Else?
COVID-19 Update There is a seesaw-like relationship between the number of COVID-19 tests and the positive rate. If there is a huge spike in tests, cases will likely increase modestly and the positive rate will likely fall. If testing falls, cases fall and the positive rate rises. That’s what we saw on Friday. As you […]
Apple Explodes After Reporting Earnings
Slight Final Decline In Consumer Sentiment July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell slightly in the final reading as compared to the preliminary reading. It fell from 73.2 to 72.5. Data looks much worse when compared to June as it’s down from 78.1 as you can see in the chart below. This was a […]
Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, & Facebook Go Bananas
Extreme Moment Is Here FANG stock reactions could be more important than their earnings reports because ServiceNow raised its guidance and fell. That being said, for the most part, the reports were better than some thought they’d be. Interestingly, AWS did miss sales estimates, but the stock rose after hours anyway. Sentiment is so positive; […]
Non-Seasonally Adjusted Jobless Claims Fall
Stimulus Still In Flux On Thursday, the Senate failed to agree to a plan that would give unemployed people $200 in weekly benefits. That’s a positive because it’s virtually inevitable there will be a stimulus. Rejecting the lower amount for people is a good thing if it leads to more money. Best case scenario would […]