Nasdaq Hasn’t Fallen On Back To Back Days Since Mid-May
Near Record Long Streak Without 2 Down Days Nasdaq hasn’t had 2 down days in a row in 48 days. Last 2 day losing streak was mid May as you can see from the chart below. That’s around the time the momentum tech stocks started outperforming the cyclical stocks. It’s amazing there was never such […]
Labor Market In A Tailspin?
There Will Be Job Losses In July Now that we are far enough into July and have enough data, we can predict there will be job losses in the July BLS report. To be clear, the stock market has already priced that in. It’s easier than usual to predict where the economy is headed because […]
Gold Approaches A Record High
Gold & Silver Explode On Tuesday, gold, the S&P 500, bonds, and the VIX rallied. It was a bonanza. Europe passed a $2 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package which helped gold and silver explode higher. As you can see from the chart below, on Tuesday afternoon, the GLD had a 14 day RSI of 71.55 signaling […]
Consumer Spending Weak In 2nd Half Of July
Same Store Sales Growth Falls Every common consumer sentiment indicator shows weakness in July. Therefore, it’s no surprise that Redbook same store sales growth in the week of July 18th was -7.5% which fell from last week’s -5.5%. Some consumers likely are pulling back spending in anticipation of their $600 weekly unemployment checks going away. Congress […]
Tech Bubble Returns On Monday: Amazon Rises 8%
Huge Sector Rotation Back To Momentum Monday had a massive swing back to the momentum tech stocks that were hurt last week, which is why last week’s decline was meaningless. Just because we had bubble-like activity followed by a decline doesn’t mean the rally is over. That’s what makes market timing difficult. If we could […]
Traders Are Very Confident In The Government
Stimulus Debate Starts The stock market is anticipating a stimulus passing. This situation is a bit different from typical political expectations because the market is 100% certain one will pass. If you just looked at the tape, you wouldn’t even realize the economy could implode without a stimulus. The stock market is pricing in a […]
Momentum Tech Stocks Have A Rough Week
Another Miss Of The June High It’s tough to say if it matters that the S&P 500 keeps missing surpassing the June 8th high. Every day that it doesn’t make a new high, the more important that high becomes. And the market was up 0.28% which put it just 24 basis points away from the high. […]
Weak Consumer & Labor Market Continues
When Will COVID-19 Disruption End? Friday had yet another record number of COVID-19 cases, but we are on the precipice of strong improvement by the end of July. Specifically, there were 74,987 new cases which is obviously terrible. There were 946 new deaths which pushed the 7 day average up from 761 to 775. Good […]
Fund Managers Overly Bullish & Netflix Disappoints
No New Record High Again S&P 500 once again didn’t surpass its June 8th high as some have been predicting it wouldn’t. There have been a few nights where the futures market suggested a new high was coming, but the cash session has yet to deliver. While flirting with this level, it simultaneously flirts with going […]
Strong Old Data for Retail Sales – Weak New Data for Jobless Claims
Very Strong Retail Sales The consumer appears to have weakened in the back half of June and the first half of July, but that didn’t impact the June retail sales report. That’s because consumers were optimistic in the first half of June and still had extra income to spare. There was pent up demand. Monthly […]