Skies Are Clear For Stocks To Rally
A New Record High For Equities The stock market is done with worrying about the coronavirus. With that in the rear-view mirror, suddenly the sky looks clear for a rally because the economy is turning around, inflation is low, there is no risk of a hawkish Fed (it’s only uncertain how many times it will […]
Improved ISM PMI & Strong ADP Report
Another ISM Beat Before getting into the non-manufacturing ISM report, here’s an interesting fact. The 5 month period where the manufacturing ISM PMI was below 50 marks the 4th longest streak since 1950 where the manufacturing sector was in contraction outside of a recession. Bears calling for a recession were wrong. That’s very clear now that […]
Tesla Has Gone Euphoric & Coronavirus Correction Is Over
Coronavirus Correction Nearly Reversed It’s clear markets are looking past the coronavirus. S&P 500 rallied 1.5% on Tuesday which put it back near striking distance of the record high it hit last month. And S&P 500 is only down 0.96% from its recent peak. As expected, the virus wasn’t a lasting negative catalyst. Airlines rallied […]
ISM Manufacturing Production Index Improves The 2nd Most In 20 Years
Much Improved ISM PMI January manufacturing ISM PMI was 50.9. That was up from the revised 47.8 (from 47.2) in December and beat estimates for 48.7. It beat the highest estimate which was 50. It was expected to come near 49.5, so itwasn’t far off. It’s surprising there weren’t higher estimates Especially since regional Fed […]
China & Copper Crater While Tesla Soars (Again)
Big News Day For Markets Monday was definitely the most interesting day of the year for markets. Tesla stock exploded higher. ISM manufacturing PMI beat estimates substantially. Alphabet reported earnings. Chinese stock market re-opened following its holiday close. Iowa Democratic caucus occurred. U.S. stock market reversed course after selling off on Friday. And commodities fell […]
Leading Index Spikes Showing 2020 Economic Growth Acceleration
Consumers Very Confident In Stocks January University of Michigan consumer confidence index wasn’t surprising. It was strong just like the Conference Board and Bloomberg consumer confidence indexes. The overall index rose 0.5 to 99.8 (up 0.7 from the 1st half of the month). Current conditions index fell 1.1 to 114.4 and the expectations index rose 1.6 […]
Stocks End January On A Low Note
Causes Of The Decline (Coronavirus/Sanders) January 2020 looks a lot like January 2018. There was volatility at the end of each month as the market had previously reached a euphoric state. This current decline is occurring during earnings season, just like 2 years ago and just like 2018 earnings aren’t the reason stocks are falling. […]
Ignore The Crash In The Chicago PMI
Homeownership Rate Strengthens Homeownership rate has been on a tear in the past couple quarters as the housing market seems to be nearly fully recovered from the bubble in the 2000s. Even though the recession ended in 2009, as you can see in the chart below, the rate continued to decline until bottoming in Q2 […]
Modest Q4 GDP Growth & Improved Homeownership Rate
2.1% Q4 GDP Growth Year over year GDP growth was 2.3% and quarter over growth was 2.1% which exactly met estimates and was at the high end of my expected range (1.7% to 2.1%). St. Louis Fed Nowcast was exactly correct even though its final reading doesn’t come out until Friday. This seems to have […]
Amazon Beats Earnings Estimates & Coronavirus Threat Grows
Coronavirus Deemed Global Health Emergency WHO stated the coronavirus is a global health emergency. Sure enough, stocks rallied on Thursday just like the historical charts suggested would happen. U.S. stock market investors see this issue as a short-term one-time event. The coronavirus likely won’t have a major impact on America. JETS airline ETF rose 0.72% […]