The market is pricing in peace for the 43rd time, plausibly.
PPI just printed the hottest number since 2022 and the tape barely moved. Half a percent here, a quarter percent there. Don’t worry. Tech can cure everything.
I get nervous when it’s this quiet on data that hot.
That’s the trade.
I sat down with Schwab’s Big 3 this morning and walked through three defined-risk spreads I’m working right now, including the $50%-year-to-date name I’m willing to step in front of with a $6 debit. Here’s what’s inside the replay:
→ Why I’m bearish on a 50%-YTD industrial that’s now trading like a tech stock with a 45 P/E — and the $20-wide July put spread I’m using to clip $14 of upside on a stock that needs to fall $80 before August earnings…
→ The gold trade I’m taking after the most surprising session I’ve seen on a hot inflation print in 30 years — and the $2.25 July call spread that needs less than a 10% move to pay out…
→ The slow-bleed pullback trade on a name that just rejected a $56 billion offer from a meme-stock favorite — and the $1.30 June put spread targeting the exact $100 level where I think this thing sits for a while…
→ The one thing about today’s market reaction to PPI that has me on the edge of my seat after 30 years in this business…
→ PLUS the company that “basically put me through college as a power seller” — and why I think the drama on this one is finally over…
Watch the full Big 3 segment here
To your success,
Don Kaufman
