FedWatch shows 90% odds of a rate cut next month.
My math says 58%.
That 32-point gap is about to make someone very rich — and crush everyone betting on “easy money forever.”
Here’s what everyone missed while celebrating that “cooling” CPI: PPI just spiked 0.9% — the biggest jump since 2022.
That’s producers getting hammered with costs they’re about to pass straight to consumers.
The market barely flinched. We didn’t unwind yesterday’s rate-cut rally.
That’s not strength. That’s denial.
Right now I’ve got my screens split between two opposite trades. If the Fed blinks and cuts anyway, financials and small caps explode higher. If reality hits and inflation stays sticky, defensive plays paying 3-4% dividends become the only game in town while growth stocks bleed.
The setups are forming. The charts aren’t confirming yet. But when they do, we’re talking 5-8% directional moves on top of rock-solid dividend yields.
My bet? The market’s about to learn the difference between “cooling” inflation and “stopped” inflation.
In tomorrow’s breakdown, I’ll show you:
- The exact chart levels that tell us which trade wins
- Why that 32-point FedWatch gap is the biggest misdirection since March 2022
- The one utility rising while everything else falls — paying 3%+ while we wait
Something’s building. Pressure. Confusion. And when it breaks, the wrong side gets obliterated.
Don’t guess which way this snaps.
See you in the main room,
Blake
