Feels Like a Crash — But Isn’t
by Tony Rago
Bears are still pressing, and what’s funny is this move isn’t even a 3% pullback — yet it feels heavy because of the speed and volatility behind it. ES remains a sell-the-rallies tape until bulls can reclaim 6,900 and, more importantly, get back above 6,912 to shift momentum. Until then, rallies are opportunities, not reversals. Over on NQ, bears need to keep price capped below 25,132 to stay in control. With VIX holding above 20, volatility is elevated, which means moves can extend quickly once direction asserts itself.
This isn’t the environment to get cute or try to pick the exact low. If we’re going to bounce, there will be plenty of room to participate once structure improves. All timeframes remain bearish for now, so the focus stays on alignment and patience. I’ll let the open develop and use the opening ranges to tell the story — that first balance will give us clues on whether sellers stay in control or if buyers finally start to push back. Until then, stay flexible, stay disciplined, and trade what’s in front of you. 💪
👉 Full breakdown is inside today’s Pre-Market Playbook. Check it out here and trade it smart.
