Yesterday afternoon, before the sirens went off, I got outside and planted.
Fertilized the fruit trees. Got some seeds in the ground. My neighbor waited.
This morning his basement floor was floating and his garden was a mud pit. Mine had exactly what it needed: seeds in the ground and enough water to germinate.
Nature does not wait for you to be ready. It moves on its own schedule, and neither does the market.
We hit the reset button at the end of March. What followed was one of the fastest rallies in market history.
If you were not already positioned, you were chasing. Chasing into a move like this skews your risk-reward in ways that punish mistakes quickly.
The people who planted early are now watching their positions germinate.
SPY hit a new all-time high today.
The Nasdaq continues to lead, and the Mag Seven is finally rotating back in. Tesla up over 6% on the day. Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft all building underneath it.
Consumer discretionary leading. Defensives lagging. That is exactly the rotation you want in a bull market.
And we are so early in this new cycle.
The thing that gives me the most conviction is the hatred. Every single day I hear it.
Geopolitics, oil, and Iran are all negative for the market.
I am not dismissing any of that. I am just telling you what history says.
Markets price this in. Wars are bullish.
Surprises tend to happen in the direction of the trend. The trend is up.
The bears who positioned against this rally are now covering. When they buy back, they send it higher. The hatred of this rally is fuel for it.
Two things could change the picture. Bonds are at an inflection point. Stability there keeps the path of least resistance pointing higher.
Oil is the Achilles heel. My primary target for crude is $70 to $80 a barrel. If it gets there, this market is going to move in ways that will surprise people.
Last night in the nightly video I laid out my specific upside target for the S&P.
If you missed it, the replay is right here.
— Gianni Di Poce
