Hey trader,
The biggest single options bet on Sirius XM in months landed during a session where the stock was getting dumped on a beat.
Most traders have seen a stock beat earnings, gap down, and wondered who keeps buying through the move. Today the Block Hunter Console showed exactly who.
One institution bought 10,000 calls at $1.08 for the September 18 expiration. The strike sits high enough that the bet only pays if SIRI clears $30 by then.
That is roughly a million dollars of premium spent against a stock the market had just dumped to $25 on the news.
By the close, SIRI had reversed back to $27 and the daily candle had swallowed several days of prior selling. The buyer was already in profit on the print before most traders saw the reversal.
A smaller version of the same setup is available for $0.73 right now, with the skew flat enough through the upside strikes to keep the structure cheap.
Why The Premium Outlay Matters More Than The Contract Count
Premium dollars are the metric that matters on a print like this. One million dollars hit the tape in a single transaction.
Premium dollars filter out noise. Large contract counts often turn out to be spreads that net to small directional bets, or rolls that just shift existing exposure between strikes.
This print was a one-sided call buy. The order took size out of the offer at full price with no matched leg to offset the cost.
That structure is rare at this scale on a $27 stock. When it shows up, it almost always reflects a directional thesis the buyer is willing to pay for outright.
The $1.08 fill is the second filter. Cheap calls attract small retail flow.
Calls priced over a dollar require real conviction because the breakeven sits well above the current price.
The Reversal Candle Confirmed The Print
The order hit while SIRI was still being sold. By the end of the session, the stock had run from $25 back to $27 and the day’s range had engulfed several prior sessions of selling.
Engulfing candles after a gap down on a beat signal that the prior trend has exhausted. Sellers ran out of supply at $25, and the buyers who had been waiting absorbed what was left.
When the absorption shows up at the same time as a million-dollar single-print call buy, the two signals reinforce each other.
The print identified who was buying. The candle confirmed they had the firepower to flip the session.
Short Interest Stacks A Squeeze On Top
SIRI carries elevated short interest going into this setup. Shorts crowded into the trade now have to defend against a stock that just reversed higher on heavy options flow.
The strike the institution chose pulls dealer hedging into the picture. Calls bought against the dealer create short call inventory the dealer has to neutralize as SIRI moves toward the strike.
Each move higher accelerates the hedging requirement. The $30 level becomes a magnet rather than a static target.
That is the same framework that drove Avis from under $100 to over $800 in a matter of weeks. SIRI is operating in the early stage of the same setup.
How To Structure The Trade
The retail version uses the $27/$29 call spread for the same direction at a fraction of the institution’s cost.
- Buy the SIRI 49-day $27 call
- Sell the SIRI 49-day $29 call
- Spread width: $2
- Cost: approximately $0.73
- Max risk: $0.73 per spread
- Skew edge: flat skew through the upside strikes
- Direction: Bullish
- Catalyst: 10,000-contract single-print call buy, engulfing reversal candle, elevated short interest, gamma magnet at $30
The exit target sits at SIRI $28.25. The spread reaches roughly $1.20 at that level for a 70% return on the entry.
If SIRI clears $29 with momentum still intact, close the spread and roll up to the $29/$31 strikes. Each completed roll locks in the gain from the prior leg and resets exposure for the next stage.
Why The Console Entry Beats The Chart Entry
The Console flagged this print as it happened. The engulfing reversal candle did not confirm the move until two hours later.
Reading the print as it lands gives you the $0.73 cost basis. Waiting for the chart to confirm puts you in at twice that price with half the move already gone.
See exactly how Block Hunter catches institutional positioning before the crowd catches on.
Brandon Chapman, CMT
Creator of Ghost Prints
