Hey trader,
Bitcoin broke out today. IBIT ran 6% and I didn’t buy a thing.
On Friday I closed a long IBIT trade near my target at 46, then sat there debating silver against Bitcoin for the next one. I went silver.
Today the money went somewhere else entirely.
Institutions did something strange in IBIT while it was ripping. They bought close to 11,900 puts at the 47 strike.
ETH went the other way. Sweeps hit the 25 and 26 calls out to November.
So I priced all three of the crypto names on my screen. Two of them wanted more money than the setup was worth to me.
The third let me control a $2 spread for 63 cents. What separated them?
The volatility curve did, and I’ll show you exactly where it leaned my way.
The Flow Didn’t Agree Across The Three Names
ETH has tracked right alongside Bitcoin. It broke out Friday and printed a new high today, the highest level going back to late January.
The prints backed the move. About 10,000 contracts hit the 26 calls near the ask, and the 25 strike filled the same way.
Both landed as a sweep. Every fill came through at the same moment at the same price, which is what a sweep looks like once I break a strike down in the Console.
They bought those for November 20 at roughly a 20 delta. Essentially, that’s a long shot strike that only pays if the move keeps running.
IBIT told a different story. It’s up 6% and breaking out, after institutions sold ahead of the Clarity Act vote and bought once it failed to pass.
Into that strength they bought puts. Close to 10,000 contracts at 47.50 and 45.50, with another 4,000 at the 47 strike.
That 47 strike ran 11,953 contracts on the day. I broke it down by fill and virtually all of it was bought, across two separate sweeps.
CORZ never made up its mind, with 1,000 contracts sold at the 20 strike for Friday and a little buying behind it.
Why The Bearish IBIT Trade Cost Too Much
IBIT trades at 48.50. A put vertical from 48.50 down to 46.50 costs 64 cents, and that runs four strikes wide.
A put vertical means I buy one strike and sell a lower one against it. That sale caps my payout and cuts what I pay to get in.
Dropping to the 48/46 brings it to 48 cents. That version is more in my wheelhouse.
At 47 it’s worth about a dollar. What I really want is 46, which gets me closer to $1.50 for this week.
I have a very short window to get there.
Going out in time didn’t fix it. The 48/46 costs 76 cents out there, with the 48 strike sitting at a 42 delta.
Implied volatility barely moves between the two strikes. I’m buying 45 volatility and selling 45.80, and that gap is too small to bring my cost down.
MARA gapped and faded today. MSTR gapped and held.
Both are hard stocks to go bearish on as a spread. The pricing isn’t there for it right now.
The Skew In ETH Leans My Way
November is where the sweeps went. November is also where the pricing falls apart, because there’s no edge in trading verticals that far out.
So I came in to about 25 days.
Open interest is heaviest at the 22 strike. The skew finally tilts in my favor in there.
Skew means implied volatility runs differently from strike to strike. When the strike I sell carries higher volatility than the one I buy, the spread costs me less to own.
Buying the 21 and selling the 23 runs 63 cents. The 21 sits at the money.
Put that cost against the width. Those two strikes are $2 apart, so 63 cents controls a $2 spread.
The volatility difference does that work. I’m buying 52 volatility and selling 53.5, close to a 1% gap, which is enough to lower what I pay.
The 22/23 widens it further. Those trade at 53 against 55, about 2.5%.
Here’s how the setup stands.
- Setup: ETH breaking out to its highest level since late January, with institutions sweeping the 25 and 26 calls for November 20 at roughly a 20 delta
- Edge: Positive volatility skew, buying 52 volatility and selling 53.5, which lowers what I pay to own the spread
- Cost: $0.63
What I’m Watching From Here
Today didn’t go the way I expected. The dollar showed strength, and I’d have looked for gold and silver to lead off the back of that.
Both are breaking down instead. Silver is rebounding off its lows, almost even with where we closed Friday.
That’s the side I picked on Friday. The money went to MAG7 and crypto instead, and MAG7 is up 2.5% today.
If you want to be bullish on crypto right now, ETH is the one showing the strength and the pricing. It’s better than IBIT and it’s better than CORZ.
The prints told me where the money went in all three names. The volatility curve told me which one I could afford to follow.
None of that started with a chart. It started with sweeps landing in three tickers inside the same session, and a pricing check that ruled out two of them before I risked a dollar.
That’s the whole job. See where the size went, work out what the dealer has to do next, then decide whether the option prices you a good enough deal to bother.
I run that scan every morning before the open, and the 90-Day Block Hunter Challenge is where I hand you the same tools I used today.
You get the Console scanning hundreds of names for hidden pressure, 2 to 3 block alerts a week, one high-upside setup every Friday, and the live Masterclass.
You also get 12 weeks of mastermind sessions with me, plus Ghost Hour from 11:30 to 12:30 EST every weekday. That’s the window when the market moves fastest and the prints tend to show themselves.
Recent Block Hunter reads include SILJ +392%, PLUG +222%, NKE +142% and GDX +72.5%.
Crypto is moving right now and MAG7 is carrying the tape. Your next 90 days start today, and your seat is protected by a full 30-day money-back window.
👉 Join the 90-Day Block Hunter Challenge
Brandon Chapman, CMT
Creator of Ghost Prints
