There’s a big market in Micron calls way out at $2,000.
I pulled them up this morning, 87 days out. Micron, MU if you trade it, is already a $1.2 trillion company.
Can MU get to 2,000? There’s not only a market for it, there’s a big market for it. Chaos.
Intel’s the same story. Intel at 170, doesn’t that sound stupid? Maybe it isn’t, because I think Intel can get to a trillion dollars, and that’s 40% more upside.
But the 195 calls, 87 days out, are still trading for 3 bucks, and that’s Intel adding another 80 bucks.
The whole market is 5 stocks right now.
Micron is up 240% on the year, Intel is up 208%, and AMD cracked a trillion dollars again. Financials are flat on the year, and most everything else is going to hell in a handbasket.
I think this ends the way COVID ended for everything else.
It’s only 6 years ago and we already talk about it like ancient history, but remember the ships sitting off the coast of Long Beach.
You couldn’t get anything, and then the ports opened and boom, there was everything. They call it the bullwhip effect, and some products went from nothing to a supply glut overnight.
I think we see exactly that in memory, and when it starts hitting AMD and Intel, the question is where the money goes.
Do we rotate back and buy Microsoft? Tesla, which is down 14% on the year and has a shot at a big run into year-end? Or do markets just toss up their cookies left and right?
Oil is stubborn, and it won’t bullwhip the same way. The price of crude could collapse and gasoline still isn’t going down, because the refining capacity isn’t there.
I’m throwing out a number based on what I’ve seen before, but I’d say 18 months minimum before diesel normalizes, and I know people driving diesel trucks don’t want to hear that.
Meanwhile, I like the XLI right now. I think it’s a good buy, because eventually we’re going to rotate out of these tech stocks. I’ve got some positioning in there, so I’ve got some explaining to do.
You’ve had a trade where everything lined up and you still lost, and what stopped you wasn’t on the chart.
A trader I’ve trusted for years can see it before the market opens, and on Thursday, September 24, at 2pm Eastern, I’m putting his screen up live and walking you through exactly what it shows him.
Be on the call, because $2,000 in cash goes to someone who’s there when it happens.
To your success,
Don Kaufman
