20.5 million with 14.7% unemployment
Even the most bullish of the bulls are skeptics
–Pros are in large part net neutral
–Retail driving the bias
The range is everywhere…
–All asset classes are in lockdown mode!
–Bonds
–Gold
–Index/Equities
–Dollar
Potential is explosive…
–the volatility box
–aka: the hurt locker
Bonds might be coming back to life, defining factor
–NIRP scare
–Fed balance sheet
My Primary Positions
–Net Short delta – tech, xlp, cost, csx, hd
–Long delta in energy sector – xle, xop
–Long call backspreads (hedges) – xlf, eem, tlt
–Long Iron Condors – spy
SPX Expected Move
–last week– 106.93 (expected)
–actual move–99.09
–next week– 79.60 (expected)
–11 out of the last 17 weeks have seen moves OUTSIDE the EM
