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All Quiet on the Western Front was a semi-autobiographical novel written about World War I from the perspective of a young German soldier who dies a month before the end of the war, on the very same day his superiors report “all quiet on the Western Front.”
As I think about the bulls’ perspective on today’s trading, I get a similar feeling: There’s nothing to report.
Besides, how do you regard the S&P 500 rising 1.5% and the VIX dropping seven points to around 30? Volatility is calming down but the /VX term structure in backwardation still points to near-term risks in equities.
How would you report on a market that is driven so wildly by changing events from day to day? Apple (AAPL) is squarely in the crosshairs one day, when the next day sees tariffs on phones being suspended, up nearly 4%. Fate’s got a fickle finger, indeed!
What we see is a market that failed to be roiled by bond selling or tariff news. We found ourselves recognizing that all really is quiet on the bearish front.
Of course, we know better – the battle for equities isn’t over, and we still don’t have any clarity. As a result, we need to stay in the trenches, take a breather, and wait for the next battle to begin.
Here’s how I see that unfolding…
