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I don’t know about you, but I’m a tired bear. Sure, getting bearish at a good time usually works out great… but instinctually we want to be bullish, right?
I wouldn’t go that far for myself, but you do reach a point when you want to see some sort of rally. Give me a nice short squeeze and then a nice buildup for the next advance (or decline) and I’ll be a happy camper.
What I’m counseling here is: be pragmatic. It shouldn’t be about always going up or down. It can be nice to have a two-way market where analysis wins out and trade construction can help generate alpha.
The “anyone can buy any breakout and make money”-type regime is boring and, just as bad, discounts real acumen.
What I’m calling for here is market exceptionalism. Yes, people may take offense, but this is a business; sometimes government debt and Fed monetary expansion make it way too easy.
However, as the axiom goes, “pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.”
In this market, at this point, we can safely say the hogs have been slaughtered.
Tonight it’s time to look for indications of whether it’s time to get long for a big recovery bounce this week…
