The whole market is staring at the wrong thing today. Kevin Warsh makes his debut behind the podium this afternoon, his first press conference as Fed Chair, and everyone is leaning in to parse every word for a signal on rates. I understand the fascination. A new chair is a big deal.  But if you want to know what is really steering this market right now, you should be watching crude oil, not the Fed. Here is the part most people are missing. The bond market is already doing Warsh’s work for him.  Long-term rates have started to come down on their own, and you do not need a press conference to see why. They are falling because crude oil is falling, and that relationship is the key to the whole picture right now. Think about how it connects.  Inflation is the Achilles heel of this market, and these days

There is a mine going up right now in the Nevada desert that sits on the largest known lithium deposit in the world. It’s called Thacker Pass.  The US government has put a $2.26 billion loan behind it and taken an equity stake, because Washington wants to stop depending on China for the metal that powers every electric vehicle battery.  General Motors has thrown in more than $900 million for a 38% piece of it. When it’s running, Phase 1 alone is built to produce enough lithium carbonate every year for around a million EVs. The company building it is Lithium Americas. The ticker is LAC. And as I write this, you can buy a share for about $5.25. That gap between the scale of the project and the price of the stock is what put this one on my watchlist. Now, I’m not here to tell you it goes

This AI rally trained traders to watch the wrong half of tech. For two years the only thing that mattered was semiconductors. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom.  The chip names did all the work, traders learned to chase them, and the rest of tech not part of the AI infrastructre roll out got written off.  After Antrhropic released Claude Opus 4.5 earlier in the year, the market has been bearish most of software.  Why pay for enterprise software if you can one-shot an app with Claude.  That fear has caused software stocks to be re-rated, with some analysts believing that Claude will take them out of business.   However, we’re now getting reports back that AI is a lot more expensive than anticipated, and that the return on that spend might not be justified.  Moreover, software alone is not a moat, that busineses like ServiceNow and Salesforce offer more than just a software

Dell just paid me a 98% winner this morning. I closed the last of my position, flat going into tomorrow’s earnings.  The stock has nearly tripled in four months.  The thesis was not complicated.  It was relative strength 101.  I was looking for tech to outperform out of a low, the way it always has historically, and Dell was the name showing me that strength before the rest of the tape caught up. I scaled out as the chart strengthened and the base built.  That is what I mean when I talk about price and time. You need the chart to confirm the move, and you need the cycle to agree with it. Get both, and the move usually pays you for it. Now the question is where I am looking next. Broadcom Looks Like the Nasdaq Did Before the Breakout Broadcom is trading at $421.48 as I write this.