“No We’re Not Crazy”: Two Banks Say Expect Fed Hike Tomorrow
It’s official. Barring a flash crash or a terrorist attack, we’ve seen the most spectacular fireworks show we’re going to see on Tuesday and it came from a the fire-breathing dragon that is Sen. Elizabeth Warren. This is a politician that makes Bernie Sanders look meek when it comes to lambasting Wall Street and boy,…
Mind The GAAP (Again)
Ok, so we pretty much covered everything worth mentioning regarding Monday’s session earlier. OPEC chatter notwithstanding, there’s really no good reason to do anything ahead of the Fed and the BoJ unless you think you have a pretty good read on the tone Yellen will strike in the presser and on what Kuroda intends to…
“Wait-And-See” Week Off To Aimless Start
Well, what can you say about Monday? We shot a terrorist, subsequently captured him, and GM got a key upgrade (USA! USA!). Other than that, it’s an aimless session. After a fast start, stocks drifted lower, then rebounded a bit, and then… you get the idea. The problem, apparently, is oil. Have a look: “They…
Previewing A Big Week: Fed, BoJ On Deck
Ok, so next week is obviously critical. We’ve got the FOMC and the BoJ and as we’ve tried to emphasize, the BoJ may actually be more critical than the Fed. The Fed has plenty of reasons to go “full-Brainard” as it were and forestall a second rate hike. They’ve got a weak non-manufacturing ISM number…
Irrational Complacency
Ok, so two things to wrap the week: bond yields and volatility. Both have been suppressed by central banks. Here’s what Citi said on August 30: “We have written recently on the distortionary effect of central bank action on asset prices. One of the most jarring manifestations of this is the persistently low implied volatility…
Deutsche Bank On The Brink, Refuses To Pay Department Of Justice
We’ve long documented the sad if sometimes comical demise of Deutsche Bank, the German behemoth that’s become synonymous with, how shall we say, “unscrupulous” business practices. The company replaced its co-CEOs last year including Anshu Jain, a man who a BaFin (that’s the German financial watchdog) once outed in a report as being a cheerleader…
Suddenly, Everyone’s Talking About VaR Shocks Again
We’ve talked quite a bit lately about systematic strategies and about the dangers they pose to markets. We’re talking here about CTAs (trend followers), risk-parity, and vol. targeting. We dodged a bullet around Brexit when it came to CTAs. Here’s why: (Chart: BofAML) What that shows is that CTAs weren’t forced to liquidate as aggressively…
“They’re Just Too Polite And Timid To Say What The Wanna Say”
Well, we got a spate of good/cop bad/cop economic data out this morning. Jobless claims were basically in-line, but if you you’re a Lael Brainaird type and you’re looking for excuses not to hike, you can probably find a reason or three in the retail data, which missed, casting doubt on the supposed “strength” on…
Loss Of Control?
Think central bankers have “lost control?” Think again. Consider this headline from Bloomberg: “Latam currencies find some stability after volatile NY session, finishing Monday stronger as U.S. equities rise, dollar weakens and UST yields are steady; dovish Brainard speech helps calm market, with Mexican peso rebounding past 19.00 key level after falling through it during…
In Monday’s Main Event, Brainard Takes Aim At Hawks
Well we knew it was going to be all about the Brainard, so we figured we might as well wait and see if the uber-dove gets hawkish. Here was Barclays pre-speech take: “Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard is scheduled to speak on the state of the US economy on September 12. Her speech is a…
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