Two Elections In The QE Economy

I am following two elections in the QE economy this November. The first election is the presidential election on November 8th. The second election is the Tesla-Solar City merger. Both elections will affect the market in different ways. Both are also symbolic of the way our current economic system is set up. It rewards those…

The Market Looks Unstable

The market looks unstable and extraordinarily weak right now. As I’m typing we are about to see the 8th down day in a row in the S&P 500. Trump is gaining in the swing state polls. The jobless claims have been shooting higher. Finally, Facebook had a bad earnings report which is sending it and…

Federal Reserve Doesn't Raise Rates For Political Reasons

Federal Reserve Doesn't Raise Rates For Political Reasons--There wasn’t much of a surprise today when the Federal Reserve stated it wouldn’t be raising rate and that the case for a rate hike strengthened. This time 2 Fed officials dissented instead of the 3 which dissented in September. It’s strange how Steve Liesman reported this as…

Small Businesses Showing Weakness

Today the ADP report came out, with small businesses showing weakness. It wasn’t a great report when looking at the headline as the report showed 147,000 jobs created which was 18,000 below expectations. However, if you look deeper into the report, it looks even worse as small business job growth was the weakest category. Small…

It's a Trump Market

In a past article I mentioned how the chances of Trump’s election rising would cause the market to decline because his monetary policy statements have been critical of the current administration’s dovish policies, which I call a Trump Market. If the current policy was hawkish, the economy would crater. A Trump election could cause a…

Suspension of Logic

After every market correction like we are seeing right now, we get to see the same S&P 500 prices we saw in 2014, which is a total suspension of logic in many ways. It is up just 2% since November of 2014. If Trump wins the election, it will most likely go below that point.…

Is The Labor Market Strong?

The biggest question on my mind as an investor who focuses on macroeconomics...is the labor market strong? This Friday we will get the non-farm payrolls data which has shown to be weakening off the peak for many months now. However, it is still showing a positive number of jobs created allowing the unemployment rate to…

A Trump Fed?

The new announcement that the FBI is re-opening its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails has moved the polls in Trump’s favor, creating a type of "Trump Fed", with many having him trailing in the low single digits nationally. This puts the possibility of Trump winning the election back onto the table if we assume they…

Trump Is Brexit

Trump IS Brexit. Allow me to explain. The presidential election was in the news today as the FBI re-opened its case investigating Hillary Clinton’s emails after new evidence was found in its research into Anthony Weiner’s separate case. This sent stocks falling mildly. I think we can extrapolate the effect it had on the market…

Soybean GDP Report

The Soybean GDP report came out this morning showing 2.9% growth. I must correct my mistake yesterday where I said the median estimate was 2.9% because the media is reporting the median estimate was 2.5%, so it beat expectations. Looking at the report, there is a lot of weakness behind the great headline number. It’s…