Payrolls Put Bulls Back in Controlby Tony Rago Payroll numbers are out, and the market likes what it sees. Futures have pushed back above 7,762 on ES and 29,750 on NQ, putting the bulls back in a position to challenge this week’s highs. Those two levels are the key breakout zones heading into today’s session. If buyers can defend them after the open, we could see another run toward the weekly highs and a strong finish to the trading week. For the bears, the game plan is clear. They need to force price back below 29,250 on NQ and 7,712 on ES to shift momentum and open the door for a deeper pullback. Until then, the advantage remains with the bulls. As always, I’ll let the opening ranges develop before committing to a direction. The first move isn’t always the best move—let the market show its hand, then trade what

Tech Takes Center Stageby Tony Rago Some weakness is showing up in tech after AMD and SanDisk earnings, and we’ll see how those names trade once the cash session opens. They’ve both been important contributors to the AI trade, so any sustained weakness could weigh on the NQ early. For the bulls, the key is defending 29,333 and reclaiming 29,500. If buyers can hold those levels, the recent momentum may still have room to continue. On the ES side, I want to see price stay above yesterday’s close at 7,750 and defend the pre-market low at 7,748. If those support levels fail, we could finally see the deeper pullback many traders have been anticipating. That doesn’t automatically mean the trend has changed—it simply means the market may need to reset after an extended run. As always, there’s no need to predict it. Let the opening range develop, see who takes

Uncharted Territoryby Tony Rago More all-time highs for ES, with the market ripping all the way to the 7,800 level in what has become a true breakaway tape. The move has been relentless, with barely any meaningful pullback along the way. Now comes the big question: what’s next? Chasing strength after a move like this can be dangerous, but fighting it has been just as costly. This is where patience starts to matter even more than prediction. The only major economic catalyst on the calendar this week is Friday’s jobs report, so until then, price action may be the biggest driver. We’re trading in uncharted territory, which means there’s no historical resistance overhead to lean on. Instead, I’ll be watching the big psychological levels—7,800, 7,850, and 7,700—for clues about where buyers and sellers are willing to engage. Let the market open, let the opening range develop, and then trade what

ES Hits New All-Time Highsby Tony Rago ES has officially printed new all-time highs, and it got there in what was basically a straight-line move. Since last week, we’re up roughly 300 points in a very short period of time. Can we go higher? Of course. But at these levels, that requires buyers to continue stepping in and pushing the market higher, and that’s a much bigger ask after such an aggressive run. Bulls are firmly in control, but I’d actually like to see price retrace some of this move and give us clues about where buyers are willing to defend. That’s where the next opportunity may reveal itself. No picking tops. That’s the biggest takeaway here. If the market wants to continue higher, let it prove it. If a short setup develops, let it develop before jumping in front of the train. NQ is still lagging and remains a

New Week, New Opportunitiesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money! We have a gap up from last night’s open, and ES still hasn’t filled that gap while NQ has already taken care of its own. NQ is clearly the weaker of the two right now, and that divergence is worth watching closely. Bulls need to defend the pre-market lows at 7,543 on ES and 28,383 on NQ. Lose those levels and we could revisit Friday’s close, which would put ES on a path toward filling its open gap. With the morning economic data still ahead, I’m going to let the market open and see how the initial reaction develops. These two markets are seriously out of sync right now. I typically look to ES for leadership, but NQ has been dragging everything lower, so we need to see whether that relationship changes once the cash session gets

Relief Rally or Something More?by Tony Rago Big rally back into some key levels overnight, with 28,500 on NQ and 7,500 on ES now front and center. Since today is the final trading day of July, I’m watching for a retracement to help us determine whether this rally has real legs or if we’re simply seeing a relief bounce off the recent lows. Bulls need to defend 7,462 on ES and the 28,106–28,000 zone on NQ, then bounce with enough strength to reclaim and close above those key levels. If they can do that, the rally has a chance to continue. If not, the bears will be looking to cap the move and push price back under 7,462 and 28,106. With month-end positioning in play, today’s session could have some interesting flows as traders and institutions look to pin price around certain levels. That’s another reason not to get too

Post-Fed: Snapback or More Pain?by Tony Rago We’ll see what this tape wants to do post-Fed. Yesterday was one of the fastest shifts I’ve seen in a long time—from risk-on buying everything to risk-off selling everything. That kind of reversal creates absolute carnage on the charts and leaves traders trying to figure out what just happened. Now the question is whether we get a snapback rally as buyers step in to absorb the damage, or if yesterday was the start of something bigger and we see continuation to the downside. I’m not interested in guessing the answer before the market opens. I want to see where we land in the opening ranges and let that structure guide the day. The OR should give us the first clues about who has the ball and whether buyers or sellers can actually follow through. After a move like yesterday, patience is more important

FOMC Day — Protect Your Capitalby Tony Rago Today is FOMC decision day. While the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, the real fireworks could come during the press conference. If the comments spook an already heavy tape, we could see a major sell-off. On the other hand, reassuring comments could quickly fuel a strong rally. Either way, this is a session where headline risk can take over in a hurry, so I’m not interested in forcing trades just to be involved. As a futures trader, my plan is likely to stay on the sidelines until the press conference is over and the market has had time to settle. With volatility potentially exploding, NQ could become nearly untradeable, and these conditions aren’t ideal for aggressive trading. The goal today is simple: minimize risk and preserve capital. We also have major earnings reports hitting after the bell, adding another

Bulls Need to Show Upby Tony Rago Bulls gave it up yesterday without much of a fight, so the question coming into today is simple: will buyers finally step back in? With big tech earnings and the Fed both on deck tomorrow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some consolidation and range-bound action today as traders wait for the big catalysts. Above 28,250 on NQ and 7,500 on ES, we could see the bulls start to spark a rally, but NQ buyers still need to reclaim 28,000 to really begin shifting the momentum back in their favor. Until then, the bears still have the upper hand. Tomorrow is shaping up to be a big one, with the Fed and major tech earnings likely to bring plenty of volatility. That means today is about keeping some powder dry and not forcing trades in front of the bigger event risk. I’ll let