Respect the Tapeby Tony Rago Another large move played out overnight, which often leaves us with a choppy and unpredictable open as the market digests those overnight swings. The higher-time-frame trend remains firmly bearish, particularly on the NQ, and that’s the backdrop we have to respect. While I expect we’ll see plenty of rallies throughout the session, those bounces are likely to attract sellers until proven otherwise. At the same time, we’re still in an environment where headlines can quickly change the tone of the market, so don’t be surprised if news-driven spikes attempt to “save the tape” throughout the day. Volatility remains the name of the game. These are some of the toughest conditions to trade because following price often means selling after a sharp decline, which can feel uncomfortable and carry additional risk. That’s why patience matters. My plan is to let the first 15 minutes play out,

Bulls Need to Prove Itby Tony Rago Coming into the open, inventory is leaning short, but the bigger story is that bulls have struggled to sustain any meaningful rallies this week. Buyers continue stepping in on pullbacks, yet every push higher has faded—especially on the NQ. That leaves the market vulnerable to a deeper retracement if buyers can’t start showing stronger follow-through. It’s an important reminder that defending support is only half the battle. Eventually, bulls need to turn those defenses into sustained momentum, or sellers will keep regaining control. My focus today will be on yesterday’s lows in NQ as the opening bell approaches. Until the hourly trend flips back to bullish, I’m more interested in selling rallies than chasing strength. That said, this is no time to become married to a bias. Headline risk remains elevated, and with Netflix kicking off tech earnings today, the market could shift

Can the Bulls Finally Break Out?by Tony Rago Bulls are doing their best to defend the 7,600 level in the pre-market, but now they need to follow through. This has been an important battleground, and if buyers can finally break free from this consolidation zone, the next upside targets come into focus at 7,633 and 7,650 on ES. Momentum has been building, but now it’s time for the bulls to prove they can sustain it. Holding support is one thing—turning it into a launchpad is another. NQ has a similar roadmap. Buyers need to push through the pre-market high at 30,062 and build toward 30,106 and ultimately 30,250. Those levels could open the door to a stronger directional move if buyers show up with conviction. As always, the opening range will be the first real clue. Rather than guessing which side wins, let the market establish direction and trade what

CPI Sets the Stage—Now the Market Decidesby Tony Rago CPI came in just a touch softer than expected, but only marginally so. The question now is whether that’s enough to give buyers the fuel they need or if the market was already pricing in a similar outcome. Bulls have an opportunity, but they need to defend the weekly pivots during the regular trading session and build back toward yesterday’s highs. Holding those key levels would keep the short-term momentum intact and put buyers back in control after the overnight reaction. Adding another layer to today’s session, Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to testify this morning, which means headline-driven volatility could show up at any point. Markets often react quickly to comments from the Fed, so it’s important to stay flexible and avoid getting married to a bias. Keep your head on a swivel, let the opening range develop, and trade

New Week, Fresh Opportunitiesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money. This week brings plenty of potential catalysts with CPI and PPI on the calendar, while Netflix officially kicks off tech earnings on Thursday. Friday’s rally was a steady, low-volume grind higher that pushed ES back above 7,612 and NQ back over the 30,000 round number. Those were encouraging closes, but now the bulls need to prove they can hold those gains. It’s one thing to reclaim an important level—it’s another to defend it once the market opens and real participation steps back in. Coming into the session, inventory is leaning short, so the early advantage belongs to the bulls if they can come out swinging. Holding above 29,412 on NQ and 7,562 on ES will be critical. Lose those areas, and the tape could get slippery in a hurry, opening the door for a deeper pullback. My

A Tale of Two Markets by Tony Rago The overnight session was relatively quiet, but there’s an important divergence developing. ES is holding above its weekly open, while NQ continues to trade below its own. That leaves us with a market that’s slightly out of sync, with ES attempting to lead and NQ still lagging behind. For the bulls, the objective is clear: NQ needs to reclaim yesterday’s close and make a run back toward the 30,000 round number. A sustained move above that level would put the breakout back in play and could help bring the two indexes back into alignment. With it being Friday, there’s also a chance we see a quieter tape as traders square positions heading into the weekend. That doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities—it just means discipline becomes even more important. Stick to your plan, avoid forcing trades if the market isn’t cooperating, and

Dip Buyers Deliver—Now Comes the Next Testby Tony Rago Yesterday’s dip buy played out almost exactly as planned, with NQ finding buyers at 28,912 and ES responding from the 7,470 area. That was an important reminder that buyers are still willing to step in at key support, but now comes the next test. For the bulls, the job is to keep NQ above 29,412 and defend the 7,500–7,512 zone on ES. If those levels hold, buyers have a chance to continue building on yesterday’s reversal. Bears, however, still have opportunities. They can lean against 29,812 and the weekly pivot on NQ while using the 7,562 weekly open on ES as a key resistance area to try and push the market back lower. As always, the opening range should provide the first real clues. With earnings season approaching, there’s a good chance we settle into a broader trading range rather than

Another Overnight Flush by Tony Rago Another big move lower unfolded overnight, which means we’re once again coming into a market where a large portion of the move has already happened before the opening bell. That makes patience even more important. On ES, bulls need to defend the 7,500–7,488 zone if they’re going to generate a meaningful retracement. If the weekly pivot and 7,500 both flip into resistance, the path opens for another leg down toward the overnight lows. The early reaction around those levels should tell us a lot about whether buyers still have enough conviction to stabilize the tape. NQ continues to be the weaker index as money rotates out of the chip names, and that’s keeping additional pressure on tech. Bulls need to defend 29,000–28,912 to have any chance of building a recovery, while the halfway-back level around 29,250 could become an important resistance zone if buyers