Employment Number Shakes the Tape — Now What?by Tony Rago The tape didn’t like the employment number — and the immediate reaction brought the fear of a rate hike back into focus. I’m really not expecting a whole lot today as we head into the long weekend, but we could see some retracement of yesterday’s rally if that reaction carries through. For any real follow-through to the downside, I want to see NQ get under 29,412 and ES break below 7,717/7,712. Until then, we’re still dealing with a market that may be more about positioning than conviction. So let’s not force anything. The long weekend can make for a choppy tape, and the reaction around those levels should tell us whether sellers actually have something going or if this is simply some profit-taking after yesterday’s move. Let’s see how we open and go from there. The goal is simple: stay

Bulls Reclaimed — Now Can They Hold It?by Tony Rago Bulls reclaimed last week’s low on ES and closed back above it — now the question is whether they can hold that level today. The key areas are 7,662 on ES and 29,000 on NQ. Bulls want to defend those levels and then push through 7,700 and 29,333 to show that momentum is actually building. NQ was pretty lackluster yesterday and couldn’t really break out alongside ES, so I’ll be watching closely to see if NQ finally decides to have a day today. 📈 It may be a tougher environment with the holiday weekend approaching and crude sitting above 92.00, so I’m not looking for a forced move. The levels should tell us what we need to know. If bulls can hold 7,662 and 29,000 and start clearing the upside targets, that gives them room to work. If those levels

Prior Week Lows — Bulls Need to Reclaimby Tony Rago More weakness overnight. The prior week’s low held on NQ, while ES retested its prior week low in the pre-market. The ES prior week low is key today at 7,655. Bulls need to reclaim that level and move back toward 7,700. If 7,655 acts as resistance, we could roll down toward 7,612/7,600. Likewise, bulls need to keep the PWL held on NQ at 28,946 and work back toward 29,333/29,412. That’s what I’m looking at today, but remember this is still a summer tape, and those are pretty big moves. We don’t need to predict which way it goes—we need to trade what we see. The reaction around 7,655 on ES should give us some important clues about whether buyers are ready to step in or sellers still have control. Let’s see how we open and deal with the 7,655 on

Weakness Continues — First Day of Septemberby Tony Rago Weakness in the overnight session — basically the move we wanted yesterday in the cash session. ES is under 7,662, which was a big support level over the last 10 days. Bulls need to reclaim that and get back to 7,700, while bears want to seal it off as resistance and push toward 7,633. On NQ, bulls need to defend 29,106 and 29,000. Bears just need to keep selling the pops and walking price lower, while a breakout for NQ comes above 29,412. Let’s see how we open and where the opening ranges land. This is the first trading day of September, so I’m going to be patient and let the tape show us what it wants to do. We had the weakness overnight, but the real question is whether sellers can sustain it once RTH opens or if buyers finally

Weakness Carries Over — Bulls Need to Step Upby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money! Weakness from Friday carried over into the overnight session, and we’re looking to open below the prior day’s lows. Bulls need to hold the 29,333/29,412 area on NQ and work their way back above 29,500. On ES, I’m using 7,700 as the bull/bear line—above it, we can reach for 7,726/7,733, while below it opens the door toward 7,677/7,662. It’s the last day of August and Labor Day is approaching, so we could be looking at a slow day and potentially a slow week ahead. That doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities, but it does mean we don’t need to force them. Let the market open, establish its ranges, and trade what we see. Keep it simple and go from there! 👉 Full breakdown is inside today’s Pre-Market Playbook. Check it out here

Bulls Have the Ball — Now Keep Itby Tony Rago Bulls were able to close near yesterday’s highs, so the ball is firmly in their court to continue the move today. We have the Fed Chair speaking at 10am Eastern, and that could bring some volatility into what has otherwise been a pretty quiet tape. Key for bulls is holding the weekly pivot on a retest for ES at 7,723 and getting and staying above the weekly pivot for NQ at 29,639. I’ll be watching how price trades around those levels once the Fed Chair’s speech is behind us. This is one of those mornings where patience matters. Let the speech happen, let the initial reaction settle, and then see which side actually wants to take control. If bulls can defend those pivots, the door remains open for another leg higher. If they lose them, we’ll adjust and trade what

NVDA Breaks the Range — Now What?by Tony Rago NVDA reports and lifts both NQ and ES out of the sideways zone we’ve been stuck in. Now the question is whether it’s enough to hold the whole tape up. ES bulls need to hold price above 7,700, and NQ bulls need to hold above 29,412. If those levels hold, we can start talking about a real breakout. Back under them and we could slip right back into the summer chop we’ve been living in. Volume is basically non-existent and the price action remains super quiet, so again, try not to overdo it. We don’t need to manufacture trades just because the market is open. Get your day made, protect what you’ve made, and move on to the next day. Let price prove the move is real and take it one setup at a time. Let’s get after it! 💪 👉

Quiet Tape — NVDA Waiting in the Wingsby Tony Rago Quiet overnight session and we’re still sitting in the same zone coming into the open. I’m expecting more of the same today—rangebound price action with low volume. NQ bulls are holding the prior week low, so I’ll be watching how we trade around 29,202. ES bulls need to get and stay above 7,700 if they want to show some strength. And of course, NVDA reports earnings after the close, so that could be the catalyst that finally shakes us out of this range. Until then, there’s no reason to force anything. Let the market open, establish the opening ranges, and see which side wants to take control. If we stay rangebound, we’ll trade the range. If we get expansion, we’ll be ready to go with it. Let’s see how we open and go from there! 👉 Full breakdown is inside

Slow Tape — Take It One Setup at a Timeby Tony Rago Expecting another slow tape today, and I’ll be pleasantly surprised if we finally break out of this range. I’m perfectly happy trading the range for the time being, but you cannot overstay your welcome in this environment. These are the days where you get your day made, recognize that the opportunity was there, and move on. Hanging around and trading out of boredom is where things can go sideways quickly. So keep it simple and take it one setup at a time. If the market gives us expansion, we’ll be ready for it. If it stays rangebound, we’ll work the range and call it a day. No need to force the issue—let price prove it’s ready to move. 💪 👉 Full breakdown is inside today’s Pre-Market Playbook. Check it out here and trade it smart. Until next time,Tony