Bears Have the Ball—But Friday Changes the Gameby Tony Rago Bulls gave up the fight yesterday and we printed new weekly lows, putting the bears firmly in control coming into today’s session. That said, I still believe the bigger catalyst for this tape is the upcoming FOMC, and trends rarely reverse on a Friday. INTC reported after the bell and absolutely crushed it, so the bulls may get a little help from that strength as we head into the open. The bears have the advantage for now, but they need to finish the job and push toward 28,250 and ultimately 28,106 on NQ. If buyers can absorb the weakness and reclaim some key levels, we could see the pressure ease. The other possibility is that we simply settle into a range, which wouldn’t surprise me at all on a summer Friday. After the volatility we’ve seen this week, traders may

Earnings Put the Bulls to the Testby Tony Rago GOOGL and TSLA both reported last night, and both stocks are trading lower pre-market. TSLA’s cash flow moved negative, while GOOGL’s EPS got a boost from unrealized gains as capex surged to more than $44 billion. Now the real question is how the market digests those numbers once the opening bell rings. We’ve seen bulls consistently defend the bottom of this range, but today’s earnings reaction could put that support to the test. If buyers are going to keep this range intact, they need to show up when it matters—not just in the overnight session. My plan is to let the market open and use the opening ranges for guidance. With major tech names under pressure, I want to see whether buyers step in and absorb the weakness or if sellers finally gain enough momentum to break the range. There’s no

Waiting on the Next Catalystby Tony Rago No economic data this morning and big earnings hitting after the bell, so we could be in for another slow summer tape. That said, I still expect the first hour to bring some volatility as traders position around these key levels. It’s all about the weekly pivots today. NQ is sitting basically right at its weekly pivot, while ES is trading below it. Bulls need to reclaim those levels and build some momentum from there if they’re going to push this market higher. The bigger picture remains sideways. Bulls have done a good job defending the pullbacks, but they continue to struggle to sustain rallies, which tells me the market is still waiting for a catalyst to spark the next real leg. Until that happens, we need to stay flexible and avoid forcing a directional bias. Let the opening range develop, watch how

Waiting for Someone to Take the Ballby Tony Rago Another consolidation day with neither side willing to take control. Today, I’m looking for that to change. On ES, bulls need to defend the 7,488–7,500 zone and build toward 7,550–7,562. On NQ, the 29,000 level remains the key line in the sand, with buyers needing to hold it and reclaim 29,250 to start shifting momentum back in their favor. If sellers step in, they need to turn 7,488 and 29,000 into resistance and open the door toward 7,450 on ES and 28,633 on NQ. The levels are clear—the question is which side can actually follow through. With big earnings on deck tomorrow and no major economic news scheduled today, another range-bound session wouldn’t surprise me. That means we need to stay flexible and avoid forcing a directional bias just because the market feels quiet. If buyers show up, we’ll trade with

New Week, New Opportunitiesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money. Bulls are trying to defend some key levels overnight, with 29,000 on NQ and 7,500 on ES continuing to act as important battlegrounds. Adding to that, the weekly pivots are sitting right in the same neighborhood, making them the key levels I’ll be watching at the open. As a general rule, holding above the weekly pivots keeps the short-term bias bullish, while losing them shifts the advantage back to the bears. The first 15–30 minutes should give us a good read on which side is ready to take control. Another thing on my radar is the VIX. After spending time near the mid-15s, it’s beginning to lift, and that’s something worth paying attention to. Seasonally, volatility tends to build into August, so this could be the beginning of that shift. It doesn’t necessarily mean markets have to

Respect the Tapeby Tony Rago Another large move played out overnight, which often leaves us with a choppy and unpredictable open as the market digests those overnight swings. The higher-time-frame trend remains firmly bearish, particularly on the NQ, and that’s the backdrop we have to respect. While I expect we’ll see plenty of rallies throughout the session, those bounces are likely to attract sellers until proven otherwise. At the same time, we’re still in an environment where headlines can quickly change the tone of the market, so don’t be surprised if news-driven spikes attempt to “save the tape” throughout the day. Volatility remains the name of the game. These are some of the toughest conditions to trade because following price often means selling after a sharp decline, which can feel uncomfortable and carry additional risk. That’s why patience matters. My plan is to let the first 15 minutes play out,

Bulls Need to Prove Itby Tony Rago Coming into the open, inventory is leaning short, but the bigger story is that bulls have struggled to sustain any meaningful rallies this week. Buyers continue stepping in on pullbacks, yet every push higher has faded—especially on the NQ. That leaves the market vulnerable to a deeper retracement if buyers can’t start showing stronger follow-through. It’s an important reminder that defending support is only half the battle. Eventually, bulls need to turn those defenses into sustained momentum, or sellers will keep regaining control. My focus today will be on yesterday’s lows in NQ as the opening bell approaches. Until the hourly trend flips back to bullish, I’m more interested in selling rallies than chasing strength. That said, this is no time to become married to a bias. Headline risk remains elevated, and with Netflix kicking off tech earnings today, the market could shift