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Bifurcation and the Death of Diversification

QQQ and the hedge that saved my bacon
–yes I am still short but hedges have helped

Long is dangerous and hedging is tough
–even a tail has RISK!

Expected moves and the great bifurcation
–QQQ, SPY, IWM, XLE, XLF

Diversification is DEAD!
–NASDAQ 100
–SP500
–EEM
–Low Beta does not constitute low risk
–Where are you gonna go?

SPX Expected Move
–last week– 64.02 (expected move)
–next week– 49.96

Don Kaufman

Don Kaufman is options trader and educator. Former CBOE market maker, former Chief Derivatives Instructor at thinkorswim, and former Director of the Trader Group at TD Ameritrade. In 2015 he co-founded TheoTrade to teach traders how volatility, probability, and risk really work.

More about Don Kaufman

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Friday, October 2, 2026 – Tony’s Pre-Market Playbook

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Thursday, October 1, 2026 – Tony’s Pre-Market Playbook

	Today
08.30	OJ & Mac \| Overnight review \| FREE SESSION 08.30 09.20 Don Kaufman \| Early volatility 09.20 10.30
09.00
09.30
10.00
10.30	Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30
11.00	Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30
11.30	Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30
12.00	Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30
12.30	Gianni Di Poce \| Macro overview 12.30 13.15 Corey Rosenbloom \| Options tactics 13.15 14.00
13.00
13.30
14.00	Tony Rago \| Futures Trading 14.00 15.00
14.30	Tony Rago \| Futures Trading 14.00 15.00
15.00	Blake Young & Mac Holbrook \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00
15.30	Blake Young & Mac Holbrook \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00