Don’s Trading Desk is the free daily market note from Don Kaufman, TheoTrade co-founder and former thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor. Every trading day Don shares his market read, trade ideas, and volatility notes: what he’s watching, what he’s trading, and what everyone else is missing.

How I Just Turned 64 Cents Into 203% Profits Overnight

Don Kaufman here.  Yesterday at 3 PM, I placed a single options trade on Google earnings. Cost: 64 cents per contract. This morning: 203% profits. Here’s exactly how it happened – the precise strikes, the mathematical reasoning, and why tonight’s Amazon and Apple earnings could deliver the same systematic profits. The Exact Google Setup That

Read More »

3 Trades I Slapped On Today

Don Kaufman here.  This morning on Schwab’s Big 3 Show, I told you volatility was coming. Powell just proved me right. “Not a foregone conclusion. Far from it,” he said about December rate cuts. The Dow reversed 200 points in minutes. Markets went from euphoria to panic in real time. But I saw this setup

Read More »

The Market’s Dangerous AI Delusion

Don Kaufman here.  The entire marketplace is now based around one company that isn’t even technically for-profit yet. Microsoft gaps up 3% on partnership news. PayPal rallies on collaboration announcements. Oracle mortgages its entire corporate existence building infrastructure.  Every major tech move revolves around developments from one entity. And that entity literally doesn’t exist as

Read More »

When $3 Trillion Gets It Wrong

Don Kaufman here.  And welcome to what might be the most expensive lesson in market psychology you’ll see this week. I just closed out Christmas tree spreads for over 50% gains in less than a month. You’d think I’d be celebrating, right? Instead, I’m getting the hell out. Why?  Because those trades should have made

Read More »

I Risk 60 Cents to Make $5

Don Kaufman here.  S&P’s this morning opened up some 44 handles. There’s a few interesting things going on, and one of them made me do something that’s probably going to make some of you lose your minds. I put on a trade risking 60 cents to make $4 and change. XSP puts. Zero DTE. Low

Read More »

Why I Sleep Worse When Markets Are Calm

Don Kaufman here.  I don’t sleep well at night when the S&Ps are at or near highs and volatility refuses to back off. Most traders lose sleep when markets are selling off hard. That makes sense – red everywhere, portfolios bleeding, margin calls incoming.  But here’s what separates experienced traders from the crowd: I get

Read More »

The Skew Signal I’ve Been Quietly Using for Years

Don Kaufman here.  Look, I need to tell you about something I’ve been sitting on. For the better part of a decade at thinkorswim and TD Ameritrade, I had access to order flow data that most retail traders never see. Billions in institutional positioning. The real money moves before they hit the headlines. One indicator

Read More »

VIX Just Dropped 11%

Don Kaufman here.  I was looking at the market data this morning and something’s not adding up. VIX just dropped 11% to 18.44 and change – that should be good news for income traders, right? Wrong. Here’s what’s really happening: Even with VIX pulling back today, we’re still seeing the kind of wild intraday swings

Read More »

The 2% Paradox

Don Kaufman here.  In 20+ years of trading, I’ve never seen volatility futures invert this close to market peaks.  Here’s why that should terrify you. The S&P 500 closed at 6,616 yesterday. All-time high? 6,764. We’re 2% off all-time highs with volatility futures in full backwardation. It’s literally never happened before. What Nobody’s Telling You

Read More »
Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

Read Don's full bio


Most Recent

The Boeing Rule That Cost Me $4,000
My First 2 Trades Were Winners. Then Came the Hard Part.
Where Big Money Leaves a Fair Value Gap on the Nasdaq
What Bailing Early Cost My Trading Room
Where the Real Selloff Starts

Get educational market insights sent right to your inbox.