You bought calls on Monday. The market went up. You did it again the next week. Same result. Now you think you have found a pattern. You have. But that pattern is about to destroy you. Out of the last 18 Mondays, 17 have closed green. Traders have been conditioned like lab rats to buy
I studied abroad in Scotland at the University of Sterling. Spent nearly a year walking through the Highlands. Saw Robert Burns’ house. Studied classical poetry and Shakespeare before I ever touched a trading terminal. Burns wrote a poem in 1785 called “To a Mouse.” He was plowing his field when he unearthed a nest and
Alcoa crushed estimates by 50% yesterday. The stock reported $1.26 against an 85 cent estimate. Wall Street’s response was to destroy it by $7 in a single session. I have traded for 39 years. This is what a market top looks like. Companies are delivering results that should send stocks higher. The market is punishing
The Six Percent Ceiling On a $100,000 account, no position should exceed 6%-7%. Ever. That is not conservative. That is the outer limit of acceptable risk. When I enter a position, my allocation runs three to four percent. When it appreciates to six or seven percent, I start exiting. When it hits ten percent, I
Wednesday morning in Chicago started at 52 degrees. By the time I drove my daughter to school, it was 22 degrees with three inches of snow. Within four seconds the windshield turned into a complete whiteout. I couldn’t see one foot in front of my car. That’s how fast conditions change. Weather. Markets. Everything. This
Wall Street eliminated 10,600 jobs last year. Total headcount is now the lowest since 2021. And this is just the beginning. I have traded for 38 years. I taught portfolio management to 28 grad students at Loyola last night. These kids are eating up technical analysis because they understand something their professors refuse to admit.
Verizon carries 52% long-term debt on its balance sheet. I pulled up the fundamentals this morning and stared at that number. Half the company’s capital structure is borrowed money. The stock trades at a 0.43 beta. It moves like watching paint dry. Investors buy it for the dividend and sleep soundly at night. They shouldn’t.
Nvidia was down five bucks this morning. I still won’t touch it. Not long. Not short. Nothing. I have traded for 39 years. I covered small cap semiconductor equipment as an analyst. I understand how to price these companies better than most talking heads on television. But I cannot price Nvidia. Neither can you. There
China just pulled the plug. State-backed Chinese investors have initiated a strategic decoupling from US private equity markets. This is not speculation. This is a five-year trend that accelerated into 2025. The numbers are staggering. US venture capital participation in Chinese deals has collapsed 92% since 2021. Chinese commitments to US venture capital funds have
Abercrombie and Fitch reported guidance this morning. They told Wall Street they would earn between $3.40 and $3.60 this quarter. The estimate was $3.45 to $3.65. That is a one percent variance. One penny at the low end. The stock crashed 16% before lunch. I have traded for 39 years. This is the most unforgiving
