The Six Percent Ceiling On a $100,000 account, no position should exceed 6%-7%. Ever. That is not conservative. That is the outer limit of acceptable risk. When I enter a position, my allocation runs three to four percent. When it appreciates to six or seven percent, I start exiting. When it hits ten percent, I

Wednesday morning in Chicago started at 52 degrees. By the time I drove my daughter to school, it was 22 degrees with three inches of snow. Within four seconds the windshield turned into a complete whiteout. I couldn’t see one foot in front of my car. That’s how fast conditions change. Weather. Markets. Everything. This

Wall Street eliminated 10,600 jobs last year. Total headcount is now the lowest since 2021. And this is just the beginning. I have traded for 38 years. I taught portfolio management to 28 grad students at Loyola last night. These kids are eating up technical analysis because they understand something their professors refuse to admit.

Verizon carries 52% long-term debt on its balance sheet. I pulled up the fundamentals this morning and stared at that number. Half the company’s capital structure is borrowed money. The stock trades at a 0.43 beta. It moves like watching paint dry. Investors buy it for the dividend and sleep soundly at night. They shouldn’t.

Nvidia was down five bucks this morning.  I still won’t touch it. Not long. Not short. Nothing. I have traded for 39 years. I covered small cap semiconductor equipment as an analyst. I understand how to price these companies better than most talking heads on television. But I cannot price Nvidia. Neither can you. There

China just pulled the plug. State-backed Chinese investors have initiated a strategic decoupling from US private equity markets. This is not speculation. This is a five-year trend that accelerated into 2025. The numbers are staggering. US venture capital participation in Chinese deals has collapsed 92% since 2021. Chinese commitments to US venture capital funds have

Abercrombie and Fitch reported guidance this morning. They told Wall Street they would earn between $3.40 and $3.60 this quarter. The estimate was $3.45 to $3.65. That is a one percent variance. One penny at the low end. The stock crashed 16% before lunch. I have traded for 39 years. This is the most unforgiving

One of the members…well…he had made too much money too fast.  I know that doesn’t sound like a problem. But, he overleveraged on momentum names that could gap down 5% overnight. I have watched traders like him blow up for 39 years. They swing for the fences every time. One bad pitch and they strike

  The four-hour MACD on the S&P 500 just curved upward… I have traded for 39 years. I have never seen people make money fighting this indicator. Not once. Not even me. The market is sitting at the apex of an ascending triangle. Every short seller piling in here is adding to their losses while

I have traded for 38 years.  Never have I introduced a theme I considered more important than this one. The market is in a state of entropy – a scientific term that describes disorder, randomness, and chaos building inside a system until something breaks. We’re 5 days away from the breaking point. The degree of