PayPal filed to become a bank last night. Not a partnership with a bank…Not a banking feature…An actual industrial bank serving small businesses. The stock moved one dollar. I expected it to move ten. If this chart weren’t so beaten down from years of decline, money managers would be all over this filing. Instead, they’re
Fermi (FRMI) got absolutely slaughtered last week. The stock cratered because the company had hundreds of millions of dollars in land leases for AI data centers. They tried to break out of those leases. The AI tenants couldn’t pay. Fermi entered into a non-binding letter of intent for Project Matador. The agreement would advance up
The Fed cut rates Wednesday afternoon. The market popped. Then it dropped. Then it settled flat. I watched it happen from my office in Chicago while snow piled up outside. One degree Saturday night. Try living that. None of it mattered. Not the cut. Not the pop. Not Powell’s press conference. The only thing that
The term comes from nuclear physics. An unstable atomic nucleus expels particles to become more stable. Each emission weakens the original structure until it transforms completely. The same process is destroying your portfolio right now. Alpha decay. You’ve never heard of it because nobody talks about it. But it explains why this market will correct
The Fed announces their rate decision at 2pm EST today. Every trader I know is glued to their screen waiting. I covered one Walmart short for $25 profit this morning. That’s my entire day. I called my brother-in-law who trades options aggressively. He’s sitting out too. I won’t touch anything else until tomorrow. Not because
Twelve out of thirteen days. Up. Up. Up. That’s not a free market. That’s machine-driven manipulation. The Martingale probability of that happening naturally is almost zero. But in a market controlled by algorithms programmed to buy every single dip it becomes a foregone conclusion. Today, I’m showing you the two indicators that prove why forcing
I pulled up the numbers this weekend. Dollar Tree versus Nvidia. Year-to-date performance. Dollar Tree: 82%. Nvidia: 72%. The discount retailer nobody talks about outperformed the AI giant everyone owns. This matters because January 1st changes EVERYTHING. Money managers wipe the slate clean. The stocks they ignored all year become the stocks they hunt. The
My students asked me out for beer Wednesday night. Twenty-eight of them spread around Chicago now. Some work for Goldman. All traders and money managers. All analysts. We sat there in a bar while the temperature dropped to 20 degrees outside. They’re finishing finals next week. Then I’m set free from undergrads for at least
The SPY just touched new highs. Everyone’s celebrating. Pull up the holdings breakdown. The top 10 stocks represent 38% of total assets. Thirty-eight percent. That’s not diversification. That’s concentration risk dressed up as an index fund. When this corrects, and it will correct, that concentration amplifies every percentage point of decline. You’re not spreading risk
Pull up the S&P 500 chart right now. Look at December. Does it look familiar? It should. Because we’re watching a carbon copy of exactly what happened last year. That’s why I’m going to show you how to start planning NOW. This is the same pattern… the same manipulation…the same window dressing games…the same algorithmic
