John Bogle invented the index fund. He built Vanguard into the largest asset manager on the planet. Before he died, he issued a warning nobody wanted to hear… If 70% of the world’s money flows into index funds, Bogle said, that triggers the end of the bull market for a decade. Not a correction. Not
A poll came out last week that should terrify you. They surveyed the top 14 Wall Street strategists. Goldman. Morgan Stanley. Jefferies. Citi. Every single one predicted a stock market rally for 2026. Not one dissenting vote. Some called for 11% gains. Others predicted 17%. Two expected 21% returns. The average across all 14 was
The market opened green this morning. Tech stocks ramping. Data centers flying. Nvidia up. Microsoft up. Meta climbing. I watched it happen from Chicago knowing exactly what was playing out. This is 401k money. Nothing more. Every January the same script runs. Retirement accounts fund. Passive money floods in. Fund managers shove capital into whatever
Michael Burry closed his entire Tesla short position. The man who predicted the 2008 housing collapse and inspired a Hollywood film just walked away from his bet against Elon Musk. It was reported this morning that Burry exited completely. Most traders see this as bullish. Finally, the famous bear capitulated. Tesla wins again. I see
The sizzle index on Etsy hit 7.37 yesterday. Today it dropped back to 0.4. That one-day spike tells you everything. Someone knew something and positioned before the rest of the market caught on. I’ve tracked unusual options activity for decades. A reading that extreme doesn’t happen randomly. The call side alone registered a six. That’s
Active equity mutual funds just recorded their 11th consecutive year of outflows. This year alone, $1 trillion fled into passive index funds. That’s not a typo. One trillion dollars abandoned stock pickers for autopilot investing. I’ve traded for 38 years. I’ve never seen concentration risk like this. The Genesis Cog Scanner tracks exactly when this
I was fully invested in 2001. You can tell what happened to me. The dot-com bubble burst, and I watched my portfolio evaporate. Then I tried to play that game again in 2007. We ran up, and I got fully invested again. We all know what happened there. Fool me twice, shame on me. I
This is a dangerous market. I told you five weeks ago there was zero chance of a selloff. Nothing has changed. Yet, I know many traders feel the need to “find” setups before 2026. That’s a great way to obliterate any gains you achieved in 2025. The market is frozen in a block of ice
I’m short Las Vegas Sands at 67. Caesars is down. Wynn has been sliding all month. The entire casino sector is underperforming while the S&P grinds higher. Nobody’s asking why. The answer isn’t in the charts. It’s in Washington. Lobbyists are pushing to regulate and slow down the proliferation of gambling across the United States.
Pull up the four-hour MACD on the S&P 500. You can draw a straight line across it. That horizontal line tells you everything about this market. The algorithms have locked us in a range between 6,800 and 6,900. They will not let it die. I keep thinking about the 1990 horror film Flatliners. Medical
