In this weekend’s article, I want to explore our psychology and how humans are wired to handle emotions—both positive and negative. During my session in the futures room, we discussed excitement (or FOMO) versus fear, and how these primal responses affect our trading decisions. The Evolutionary Cost of Fear To understand this better, think about our collective ancestry. When humans were primarily hunters and gatherers, hearing a sound in the thicket might signal a lion, bear, or other threat. Our instinct? Immediate flight. Even if the fear wasn’t founded—if it was just wind or a squirrel—running away cost us very little. The fear response carried low risk with the ultimate reward: staying alive. We weren’t punished for being overly cautious. The flip side? Excessive excitement or FOMO carried much higher risk for our ancestors. They were rewarded for conserving energy and pursuing only sure opportunities rather than chasing uncertain ones.

I love nature. I love making analogies about nature. Our neighbor had a small bird problem—and by “small bird problem,” I mean both that the problem was small and the birds themselves were small. Hundreds upon hundreds of birds had taken up residence in the trees lining the sidewalk in front of their house.  We don’t know why they chose these particular trees over similar—even identical—trees along the road, but they did.  These hordes of little birds were loud and messy, leaving the sidewalk and any car parked along the curb covered in droppings. Every time we walked by and caught our neighbors outside, they’d comment on how much they’d like to eliminate these birds and be rid of the noise and mess. Well, one day it happened. All without any effort on their part. The noise stopped, and the birds were gone. In their place: a beautiful Great Horned

Homebuilders rallied 40% off their annual lows.  Everyone celebrated the bounce.  The Fed cut rates in September, and housing stocks took off. But something broke in the past week…  The ITB ETF tested resistance at $117 twice and failed both times.  The uptrend line that held for months snapped. Treasury yields refused to drop despite the Fed’s dovish stance. This tells us the bond market never showed up.  Without real demand pushing rates lower, the housing rally just ran out of road.  The technical damage is now clear across homebuilders and mortgage lenders. The sector that led the recovery may lead the next leg down. And it’s ripe with opportunity. Here’s what the charts are telling us and how to position for the decline. The ITB Breakdown The ITB tested the 117 level twice in recent weeks.  The first test came during the December gap fill. The second arrived just

On the path where I walk my dog, in the middle of a small crack in the pavement, a solitary marigold has sprung up in this unlikely spot.  Despite the inhospitable conditions—excessive heat and little water—it thrives. While it’s not difficult to see lessons in this hardy foliage, my mind turns to my mother.  Perhaps it’s because her birthday falls this week, or perhaps it’s because I see her as someone who has not only survived but thrived throughout her life despite facing hardships. She has flourished and adds beauty to the world for all who have the opportunity to encounter her.  Just like the marigold, her beauty is found not solely in the physical, but in her quiet strength and ability to overcome adversity.  I won’t delve into the details of any particular difficulty, but I will say that her kindness, generosity, and friendship to others knows no bounds

I got trapped by my own fly trap last week. Every September where I live, house flies invade. We try everything – sprays, swatters, those salt shooting guns. Nothing eliminates them, so we manage with sticky fly strips. You know the ones: gooey plastic strips that trap anything that touches them. I was grabbing a tool from my garage pegboard when I accidentally brushed the strip. Made me flinch, which flipped the tape up onto my forearm. Without thinking, I grabbed it with my free hand. Now I’m stuck to this thing with both my arm and hand. You can’t comprehend how sticky these strips are until you’ve got one in your arm hair. Regular soap does nothing. Water somehow makes it worse – turns the goo into permanent paste. As I’m scrubbing with near-scalding water and pumice soap, cursing this adhesive nightmare, I realized: This is exactly how traders

Gold, silver and copper don’t need to go any higher for mining stocks to deliver massive profits. You see, most traders assume metal prices need to keep climbing for mining companies to succeed.  That’s not exactly how it works… Current metal prices already provide mining companies with sustainable margins that could last for quarters or even years. And Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) sits at the center of this misunderstood opportunity.  The company maintains debt coverage so strong that it could survive 23 years if they keep making the same revenue. Technical patterns indicate that FCX is consolidating for a potential bullish breakout. The modified Chaikin indicator reveals sustained accumulation despite recent weakness. Smart money recognizes when multiple catalysts align to create asymmetric opportunities. FCX delivers exactly this scenario with a target price of $55 representing potential 20-30% returns over the next year. Here’s how it all lays out. The Macro Foundation:

This week’s trading was rough.  We had big wins, big losses, and flat days.  The difficulty in trading this week reminded me of my years studying the martial art of Kenpo.  I had already decided after Tuesday’s trading session that this weekend’s article would focus on a specific lesson I learned in Kenpo—then I read Professor Bierman’s discussion of his daughter’s martial arts training. I guess it’s true: great minds think alike. My experience unfolded during my years from 16 to 19 in a garage converted into a martial arts studio.  I gained tremendous experience and learned hard lessons in that garage, with very little padding on the concrete floor. I’m sure I’ll share additional stories in the future. But today I want to tell you about one of the more physically painful lessons I learned. Each week, we trained on technique and always concluded with 15 to 30 minutes

The past two weeks have been heavy, so I thought I’d lighten things up by reminiscing about simpler times watching Monty Python and the Holy Grail. During Friday’s session, as Brandon and I passed control to Gianni, I quipped “My sister was bitten by a moose”—a reference to the movie’s absurd scrolling credits. That level of nonsense made me laugh as a young man, and now, as an adult, I laugh at how easily amused I was. Despite the film’s deliberate absurdity, there are three genuine life and trading lessons we can glean from John Cleese, Eric Idle, and the rest of the Pythons. Lesson 1: Be Wary of Unknown Animals The Grail seekers encounter what appears to be a harmless, cute, fuzzy rabbit. It turns out to be “the most foul, cruel, and bad-tempered rodent you’ve ever laid eyes on,” quickly dispatching the approaching soldiers. While we should indeed

We’ve just completed our first month of trading in the 10% Club…And what a month it has been!  We not only met but far exceeded our goal, achieving a 45% return on the entire portfolio, leveraging trades placed live during our morning sessions within a 2.5-hour window. And we did it while keeping our risk per trade at or below 2%. While I’ve experienced strong months before, this marks a new high-water mark for monthly percentage gains. Still, I recognize that for some, it wasn’t an easy month.  Many of you were learning about futures trading for the first time, adopting a new methodology, attending the Mastermind, showing up to the morning trading room, opening futures brokerage accounts, and trying to apply new principles and strategies.  There’s a lot to take in, especially when stepping into unfamiliar territory. What I want to emphasize this weekend is this: it’s more than

Next week, my son is moving for school and work. The good news? We actually like our sons—most of the time—and he’s moving closer to us. The bad news? I get to drive six hours and help him move heavy furniture. When he said, “I think I’ll just rent a U-Haul and load everything up,” I immediately imagined a cartoon parody of a commercial: Announcer: “Need to move? No problem. Take it yourself with U-Haul.” Customer: “But I’ve never driven a truck before.” Announcer: “No problem! U-Haul lets anyone drive a giant truck—because, hey, you’re moving!” Cue scene of a U-Haul swerving across the freeway, forcing other cars off the road. Customer: “Sorry! I’m making a go of it in a new city!” I’ve been there. At his age, I rented a 26-foot U-Haul and drove it across town. It was nerve-wracking: slow acceleration, no rear-view mirror, only side mirrors,