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You’re Wrong More Than You’re Right, and That’s Fine

Hey trader, I’m not much of a sports fan. I’ve had my seasons of following teams and going to games, but somewhere along the way the games themselves stopped holding my interest. The statistics, though, are a different story. I don’t watch the numbers to handicap a game or place a bet. I watch them because they teach one of the most counterintuitive lessons in trading: being right is overrated. Here’s why. The best in the world fail more than they succeed Look at any sport and you’ll find the same pattern. The greatest players of all time, the ones we consider the best to ever play, are wrong more often than they’re right. In the NBA, the league average field goal percentage is around 47%. In the NFL, only about 40% of possessions end in points. In Major League Baseball, a career batting average of .300, getting a hit

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My Favorite Way to Set Trade Stops and Targets

Hey trader, Think back to the last trade that went green and then slid all the way back to your entry before you closed it. It makes you start to question yourself… …was my profit target too far…did I forget to take a profit? Chances are the stop was tied to the one number that does not matter to anyone but you: the entry price. That habit quietly turns a good winner into a scratch or even a loss. Fortunately, there is a better way to manage risk I’m going to show you today. You see, the market never really sees your entry. It’s buried underneath It only cares about order flow and what’s on the charts. That’s how you should set your stop and profit targets. Now, I’m not saying you should ignore the balance of risk and reward. But that defines whether you take the trade, not HOW

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It’s All About Perspective

Hello trader, When it comes to trade execution, risk, position sizing, and targets, most of what I do in trading sticks to the math and the statistics. You might think there’s no room for perspective in a numbers-driven process, but there absolutely is. It just tends to show up after the fact, in how we interpret what already happened. Before I get into what that means for trading, let me tell you about a video I saw that made me rethink perspective entirely. In this clip, someone was visiting Disneyland, standing at the wishing well beside “Snow White.” The person tossed in a coin and said earnestly to the princess, “My wish is that you never eat another poison apple again.” If you know the 88 year old Disney classic, you know how the Evil Queen disguises herself and offers Snow White a poisoned apple, one that sends her into

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The ES Trade This Morning, Broken Down Step by Step

Hey trader, A clean entry means nothing if you have no plan for the stop and the target. That is where the money leaks out. You get in on a good read….Then you manage on nerves. You yank the stop on a wick…You freeze when price finally reaches your number. This morning the ES handed me a textbook example. It came with one early signal, one confirmation, a stop I walked up the whole way, and a target drawn before the bell. I am going to give you that trade step by step. Entry, stop, add, and exit, exactly as I ran it, so you can copy the sequence on your own chart. Step 1: Draw Your Levels Before the Open Everything starts the night before, off yesterday’s high and low. I draw a beacon. That gives me a zero line for fair price and a projected target above it.

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How To Get Paid During the ChopFest

Friday handed you a tape with nothing in it. Crude knifed to fresh lows again and again. The equities locked up for an hour and a half. They ground out lower highs and lower lows. A tape like that bleeds an account one scalp at a time. You force a click, you get chopped, you force another. When a member asked me about an oil name during that stall, I walked through a calmer way to get paid. It is a setup that could collect 2.3% in a month on a stock worth owning, with a 4.6% cushion before any trouble. Here is the idea I laid out on ConocoPhillips. A Tape That Pays You Nothing for Trying For most of Friday the equities went sideways. No follow-through came in either direction. Crude was its own mess. It melted to new lows all session. The fast money kept clicking into

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Why $68 Oil Should Worry You More Than $100 Did

Hey trader, Cheap oil feels like a gift: Lower gas, lower costs, more money in your pocket. For a trader holding stocks, that gift can be a warning in disguise. Folks forget we are in the middle of a conflict that hasn’t been resolved. Roughly 1.5 billion barrels are missing from global supply. Global oil inventories have been depleted. Crude sat at $68 to $70 all morning. A price that low, with a backdrop that tight, should not exist. The supply side alone cannot explain it. The oil market’s refusal to rally tells us something key: the problem is no longer supply…it’s demand. Today I want to show you the math I ran on crude this morning, why a stubbornly cheap barrel is a recession flare, and what it means for every position you hold. The Price That Should Not Exist Crude has fallen from around $100 a barrel down

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Why My Politics Never Touch My Crude Stop

Hey trader, How you feel about a headline can quietly steer your money… …and it’s exactly where good weeks go to die. Crude flashed a clean short more than once this session. Clicking it would have felt obvious. The danger is letting your read on the news, your side of the politics, decide where your stop goes. I passed on every one of those shorts. I want to show you the single question I ran on crude each time it tempted me. It is the same question that keeps me out of the trade that erases a month. A Clean Signal Is Not Always a Tradeable One Crude broke through the lower Bollinger Band more than once today. On the chart, that is a short, plain and simple. A breakout like that is a trade I would take on almost any other instrument. The entry was clean. The structure lined

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How I Lost on the Only Trade I Took and Still Protected My Account

  Hey trader, The trade that wrecks an account is almost never the one you got wrong on direction… …It is the one you handle badly after it turns against you. Wednesday was a Fed day.  The tape was narrow, choppy, and driven by headlines instead of clean structure. I took exactly one trade. It lost. The win here is what that loss actually cost me.  I walked the risk down to about 1% of the account and went home. I am going to give you the exact MES short, every stop I moved, and the habit that turned a bad trade into a small one. The Only Setup Worth Clicking Most of the morning gave nothing. It was a Fed day with narrow ranges across the board, so I doubled the beacon range to filter out the fake breakouts. That filter killed almost every signal. Crude was no trade.

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Why I Didn’t Take This Crude Short Signal

Hey trader, Peace broke out this weekend. Sunday futures saw equities climb and crude oil plunge. I couldn’t wait for Monday’s trades. During my morning session, crude flashed a clean sell signal this morning. My system fired the short, and it did it more than once… Yet… I let every one of them go by. Clicking that short would have felt obvious. While gut feelings aren’t enough, they point you to personal experience and learning. Which reminded me of a HUGE trap traders fall for… The biggest losses in this business rarely come from a bad signal…They come from a good signal taken on the wrong side of a surprise. Today I want to show you how I separate a signal that is valid from a signal that is worth trading. And there is one question I run on crude before I ever touch it. The Signal Was Real Crude

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3 Lessons From an Extremely Volatile Week

Hey trader, This week the tape whipped in both directions. It never settled into a trend. Five sessions brought sharp reversals and a wild Tuesday open. A surprise tweet even flipped a live position in seconds. Traders who tried to predict every turn paid for it. The 10% Club still closed the week green at +$195.25. That result had little to do with calling direction. It came from three habits that protect capital when volatility takes over. Here is how each one played out in real trades. Lesson 1: In a trendless tape, small losses win the week Monday handed us one beacon signal across every tracked market. We took the MES short. Price stopped us out for 4 points. The loss was $20. Then price ran 25 points higher to the beacon anchor. A stop left fixed in place would have turned a $20 scratch into real damage. We

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