You’re Wrong More Than You’re Right, and That’s Fine
Hey trader, I’m not much of a sports fan. I’ve had my seasons of following teams and going to games, but somewhere along the way the games themselves stopped holding my interest. The statistics, though, are a different story. I don’t watch the numbers to handicap a game or place a bet. I watch them because they teach one of the most counterintuitive lessons in trading: being right is overrated. Here’s why. The best in the world fail more than they succeed Look at any sport and you’ll find the same pattern. The greatest players of all time, the ones we consider the best to ever play, are wrong more often than they’re right. In the NBA, the league average field goal percentage is around 47%. In the NFL, only about 40% of possessions end in points. In Major League Baseball, a career batting average of .300, getting a hit