Tech Only Tells Part of the Story

Hey trader, Stocks ripped to fresh all-time highs again last week. Every major internal confirmed the move. Even the rally’s loudest skeptics are coming around now. The easy money phase is winding down. The party is far from over, though….There is more to it than tech simply leading… A rotation kicked off inside the sector last week, and it points straight at the area I would be buying right now. Here’s what I see. Intra-Tech Rotation Accelerates Performance Leader 1-week 30-day YTD 1-year Sector Technology (XLK) Technology (XLK) Technology (XLK) Technology (XLK) It has been a while since I have seen a sector leaderboard this clean. Technology leads across every timeframe that counts: It does not get more bullish than a clean sweep like this. This will not last forever. For anyone who tracked the building strength here, it is total vindication. Bear markets do not begin when technology leads

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Why I Make More in 2 Weeks Than in 2 Months

Hello Trader, Have you ever noticed that many traders will make their entire year in just a few months or even weeks? Heck, some folks make the entire decade in less than a year… …and it’s the secret sauce to my long-term profitability. Some people like to call it luck. Statisticians call it the “Fat Tail.” And no one took it seriously until 1987 – October 19 to be specific. Now, you’re probably familiar with or have heard of fat tails before. But what I’m about to show you will change the way you look at the market forever. Why the Bell Curve Lies to You Most financial models lean on one comforting assumption – market returns follow a neat bell curve. In that tidy fantasy, most days look about the same. Truly extreme moves are supposed to be almost impossible. Real markets do not cooperate. They have fat tails.

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Can Bulls Find a Use for Utilities?

Hey trader, Stocks capped off another impressive week going into the holiday weekend. Now it’s straight back to business. Weekend headlines pointed to deal progress with Iran. Equity futures have hit new all-time highs across the board, much to the dismay of the doom and gloom crowd. It doesn’t get more bullish than new all-time highs. This rally is making its mark in the record book. That doesn’t mean we can completely ignore the internals though. One specific signal from last week is worth your attention as we close out May. Today, I want to walk you through what utilities are telling us right now. I’ll cover why it matters more than the headlines suggest. Then I’ll show you how to position yourself if a pause is coming. Are Utilities Warning of a Pause? Performance Leader 1-week 30-day YTD 1-year Sector Utilities (XLU) Technology (XLK) Energy (XLE) Technology (XLK) Since

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The Trap That’s Killing Your P&L

Hey trader, Every trader I know has done this at some point. The market pulls back. Your P&L turns red for a couple sessions. Immediately, you start thinking, “What if I had taken profits sooner? What if I had tightened the stop? What if I had skipped that one entirely?” That voice in your head is the most expensive habit in trading…That voice costs real money. It pulls you into a trade-off nobody talks about: Accuracy versus big winners. One is much harder than the other. And it hides the real question you should be asking…Do you actually have a method? Or are you just reacting to your own P&L? Here’s how you can tell the difference. What A Method Actually Is A method is a set of rules you follow whether you feel like it or not. That is the whole definition. There is nothing fancier going on underneath

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Friday Finally Gave the Bears a Bone

Hey trader, Stocks ripped to fresh all-time highs again last week. Then Friday hit, and the bears finally got their first real session of the month. Bond yields ripped higher. Energy ran the table for the second time in three weeks. The market’s internals flashed weakness underneath the surface for the first time in a long while. That matters. None of this changes the bigger picture. The bull trend is intact. And data still favors buyers. The rotation happening right now is the most important thing to track this week. Today’s letter walks through what the scorecard is telling us and which sectors I want to see step up next. I’ll also share the exact level on Nvidia that would make me start listening to bearish calls. If you’re sitting on cash waiting for a dip, this is the setup to plan around. More Bearish Energy, Less Bullish Momentum Performance

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The Bond Signal Perma-Bears Keep Missing

Hello Trader, Bonds broke to new lows for the year. Right on cue, the doom crowd is calling tops on stocks. They’ve been wrong every month for years. They’re wrong again. Today I’m showing you the only two bond market signals that actually matter for equities. I’ll also tell you exactly what a real warning sign looks like. Get this framework right and you can stop flinching every time the 10-year ticks higher. Kevin Warsh got confirmed as Fed Chair in the same week bonds hit those new lows. He’s a historical hawk, and that timing matters. My view is Warsh ends up being the Fed Chair who ushers in yield curve control to the U.S. A crisis has to come first, but that’s the path. Keep that in the back of your mind as we work through what bonds are signaling right now. A couple of hot inflation reports

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Bears Just Got Their Worst News of the Year

Hey trader, The bears had their best setup in months last week. They had energy leadership, tech wobbling, and a clean rotation story that would have justified every doom-and-gloom take from the perma-bear camp. They missed badly. One key metric flipped in five trading days. It just killed the bear case, and it’s pointing straight to where the next leg of leadership is already forming. And I’ll walk you through all of it below. The Trend Is Your Friend Last week, I gave you one job. Watch the relative strength between tech and energy, because that would be the tell. Here is what I wrote inside last week’s letter: “If tech reasserts itself, stay long. The bull case is intact and we keep grinding higher toward new highs. If energy keeps leading while tech stalls, get defensive. That’s your early warning that the rotation is real and the rally is

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The Next Rotation Within the AI Trade

Hey Trader, Everyone is staring at semiconductors right now. The chip rally has been historic, and I get the obsession. But there is another piece of the AI trade quietly setting up for its next leg higher. Almost nobody is talking about it. In the next two minutes, I will show you the sector, the exact chart pattern flashing on my screen, and why this rotation has real fundamental legs behind it. The Setup On the Chart Take a look at this weekly chart in the URA ETF. The sector is nuclear and uranium stocks. URA topped back in January. Instead of breaking down, it corrected and printed another higher low in late March, right in line with the longer-term trend. Zoom out further. The sector has essentially gone nowhere since October. That sideways grind is what builds the next leg higher. It is a textbook cup and handle, and

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The $100 Problem Nobody’s Talking About

Hey trader, Tech vs. energy is the only thing that matters this week. That’s the whole game. If you only read one sentence of this newsletter, make it that one. Here’s why it matters, and exactly what to watch. The Setup Nobody’s Pricing In Performance Leader 1-week 30-day YTD 1-year Sector Energy (XLE) Technology (XLK) Energy (XLE) Technology (XLK) Last week, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 printed fresh all-time highs. Mega-cap earnings delivered, and the market finally admitted that earnings growth matters more than geopolitical headlines. But the celebration came with a catch. Energy was the top-performing sector last week. Crude oil is still parked around $100 per barrel. That combination is the most important story in the market right now. Why $100 Crude Changes Everything The longer oil stays elevated, the better it is for energy stocks. Simple enough. But here’s the catch. Elevated oil quietly chews away at

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Inflation Is Bullish For The Dollar

Hey trader, Something frustrates me when I watch other traders work. They keep running a playbook from a market that died five years ago. Then they wonder why nothing makes sense. Nowhere shows this more clearly than the dollar, oil, and interest rates. The textbook relationship between these three got rewritten this decade. Most traders never got the memo. It has been quietly costing them money for years. In this article, you will see why the dollar now rallies with crude. I will show you what that signals about the next decade of inflation. And you will walk away with three position adjustments to make this week. Why The Old Framework Broke For nearly forty years, the textbook relationship was simple. A falling dollar pushed oil higher. A rising dollar pushed oil lower. Interest rates moved in the opposite direction of the dollar to stabilize whichever side of the trade

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