You’re Grounded! Option Bears Turn on Airlines
Airline Unusual Option Activity Report There’s nothing worse than having your airline flight cancelled during the holidays. You’re at the terminal and ready to board amidst falling snow, and then the call comes…flight cancelled. There are many movies that start out that way as stranded passengers scramble to find their way home. Luckily for you, […]
Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) Finds Bullish Option Interest Revival
XOP Unusual Option Activity Oil prices traded flat on Tuesday, but oil stocks and ETFs like XOP found a bid right after the open. As the price began to rally, so did the option interest and stock volume. This is an indication that the bullish movement in the energy industry may not be over as […]
Mega Nasdaq Bubble
Sell This Rally In Tech If you own any tech stocks with a greater than 30 PE ratio or any of the speculative EV, SaaS, or online retail stocks, you must sell them now. This is a rare moment where speculation exceeds basically every other market in history. The CNN fear and greed index is […]
This Is Who Sees A Cyclical Recovery
Labor Force Participation Rate Falls Even though the unemployment rate fell 0.2% to 6.7%, this wasn’t a good report because the labor force participation rate fell from 61.7% to 61.5% which is a big decline. It’s down 1.9% from before the recession. Because of demographics, it might never regain all its losses, but it should […]
NDAA News Gives Bullish Fuel to Uranium Stocks Like CCJ
Every Friday on TheoTrade I go over top-down trends in the stock market and on November 27 one of those areas was uranium stocks like Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ). At the time, this was following the broader rally in materials stocks. However, last Wednesday I posted some of the unusual option activity on our site […]
Stocks Love The Weak Jobs Report
Euphoria Keeps Going Especially In Small Caps Small caps and cyclicals were riding high heading into the jobs report. Many were looking for a pullback once the weak jobs report came out. Instead small caps and value stocks rose even further. The short sellers must be at a loss if there are any left. They […]
Labor Market Shows Signs Of Weakness
Disappointing Jobs Report Recent labor report disappointed estimates, but come out ahead of the ADP reading. The ADP report showed 307,000 private jobs added. The BLS report showed 344,000 private sector jobs added. That missed the consensus of 590,000 jobs and the lowest estimate which was 400,000. ADP finally got this one right after being […]
Tech To Have A Bad 2021
Solid Day For Stocks Other Than S&P 500 Thursday was a mostly good day for stocks. There was some modest volatility near the close on the news that Pfizer cut its estimated vaccine distribution for 2020 in half. That’s not important to stocks. The year is practically over. Vaccines aren’t going out until the last […]
Many Don’t See A Stimulus Passing In 2020
Update On Stimulus The latest headlines on the stimulus sound good, but many are actually quite skeptical. On Thursday, McConnell stated he has seen “hopeful signs” for a deal, but he released a $500 billion proposal. He hasn’t moved his stance in the past few months. Pelosi and Schumer backed the $908 billion bipartisan proposal. […]
Skew and Verticals: You’re Either with Me or Against Me
After the many years I’ve taught option trading, skew is probably one of the least understood concepts. In theory, applying skew is really easy. You want to sell thigs that are more expensive and buy things that are less expensive. Most people get that, but the issue with skew is that it’s not the price, […]