Hope Dominates The Stock Market
Is This What Euphoria Feels Like? The stock market is expressing extreme hope that either the economy reopens in May or June without any trouble or that a treatment or vaccine are coming soon. At least there are a few ways for the bulls to win! We are probably not at a moment of extreme […]
Jobless Claims Set To Fall Further (Great For Stocks)
Leading Indicators Crash March leading indicators report showed a 6.7% monthly decline which beat estimates for a 7% decline. If you can believe it, this was the best beat in 8 years. The title of this index being “leading indicators” is laughable now because we have known the 2nd half of the March economy was terrible […]
Stocks Spike On Thursday Evening On Hopes Of COVID-19 Treatment
Thursday Night Futures Spike Let’s start with the most important latest news. Futures market exploded to the upside. Stat News came out with a report that the early signs of the drug remdesivir seem to be positive. Obviously, if a drug that treats COVID-19 comes out, people can go back to their normal lives. The […]
Initial Jobless Claims Fall Which Is Bullish For Stocks
Jobless Claims Fall As predicted, jobless claims fell sharply in the week of April 11th. Firstly, last week’s report showed claims were revised up from 6.06 million to 6.615 million which puts it just below its cycle high the week before. The addition of the 5.245 million claims in this latest report puts the unemployment […]
WTI Lowest Since February 2002
Stocks Are Now Down On The Week It has been very tough to predict near term price action, but for the first time in a while the week has gone exactly how expected. Many forecasted a week with a lot of up and down action in which the market ended modestly positive. So far, we […]
Worst Retail Sales Growth Since At Least 1992
Lower Income Gets Hurt Again Poor and lower middle class always bear the brunt of recessions. That’s why the $1,200 stimulus check was targeted towards them. It would help if they got more money. But at the same time, unemployment insurance goes a long way towards helping people. Some people are making more money from […]
Amazon & Microsoft Go Parabolic
Big Rally, New Bear Market High Shattering records, the stock market had a great Tuesday as it hit a new bear market high. At this rate, we could see a new record high before summer starts. However, stocks won’t continue at the latest torrid pace. This is similar to the rally off the low in […]
IMF Lowers Growth Estimates (Most Obvious Call Ever)
Spending Finally Falls Many have been predicting that Redbook retail sales growth would fall in the next few weeks as people are done excessively grocery shopping. People need to actually eat and use what they bought at the grocery store when they hoarded goods in mid-March. Plus, people now know how much they need to […]
Stocks Don’t Give Back Much Of Last Week’s Gains
Modest Monday Decline Days of the market crashing on Monday are over as stocks fell 1.01% on Monday April 13th. Frankly, I think the days of crashes in general are over. A modest decline after the best week since 1974 is quite impressive. We all went into the week expecting a mixture of down and […]
Bulls Like High Unemployment
Investors Love High Unemployment When the economy is doing well and the unemployment rate is high, it’s bad for stock returns. It is like an hour glass that’s running out of sand. You can debate whether that analogy holds true for this cycle because low unemployment didn’t create inflation and cause the Fed to hike […]