Extreme Fear - Fed To Hike Rates Until Something Breaks

Extreme Fear Continues The S&P 500 fell 4 basis points. Dow rallied 0.26% because Proctor and Gamble beat earnings estimates. This caused its stock to increase 8.8%. The Nasdaq fell 0.48% and the Russell 2000 fell 1.2%. Advanced Micro Devices was the biggest loser in the S&P 500 as it fell 11.1%. The best sectors…

Shanghai Composite Down 30.12% Since January 26th

Shanghai Composite - Weakness In China Let’s get back to possibly the biggest topic of the year. That is the crash in Chinese stocks and the weakness in its economy. The table below breaks down the Chinese market’s performance in the past year using the new sectors. As you can see, the median communication services stock…

Industrial Production Growth - Very Strong

Industrial Production - Solid Growth The industrial production report is always pivotal in measuring the economy. It’s especially important now that we've disconnected soft indicators from the hard reports. It’s interesting that the September ISM manufacturing PMI fell slightly. However, industrial production growth accelerated on a year over year basis. It also beat estimates on a…

Fed Hawkish In 2019?

Fed Hawkish - FOMC Minutes FOMC Minutes from the September 25th to 26th meeting were released at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. The Minutes stated, “Participants generally anticipated that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would most likely be consistent with a sustained economic expansion, strong labor market conditions, and inflation…

U.S. Treasuries - Where Will They Go?

U.S. Treasuries - Fundamentals Of The Treasury Market The long bond sold off sharply from the end of August until September. It has been steady in October. The question is where it moves next. Personally, I look at the bond market as a signal of the economy. From that, I use my opinion of the economy…

Stocks Rally & Netflix Spikes On Great Earnings

Stocks Rally - Finally The stock market finally skyrocketed like I expected on Tuesday. Stocks were intensely oversold heading into the day. Short term indicators signaled stocks should burst higher soon. The performance over the next 12 months is still dependent on the fundamentals. The S&P 500 increased 2.15%, the Nasdaq increased 2.89%, and the…

Retail Sales Report - 5% Year Over Year Control Group

Retail Sales Report - Decent Retail Sales Growth The September retail sales report was controversial in that both the bulls and the bears used it to support their narratives. With stocks falling on Monday, the bears were gaining confidence and ready to declare another victory. I disagree with the bears. I think this was a…

Stocks Decline On Monday Even Though They Are Oversold

Stocks Decline Again Surprisingly, stocks fell on Monday. The market is very oversold which usually implies a bull run is coming. I’m not saying stocks should hit a new high. But I think a 2% to 3% recovery this week is in the cards unless there’s a negative catalyst. The S&P 500 14 day relative…

Trade War - Negative Impacts

Trade War - Soybean Inspections It’s very important to avoid listening to cynics who claim soybeans aren’t important. They are America’s largest export to China. The trade war between China and American appears to be getting worse. It’s important to follow this commodity closely. America has a mixed economy while China has a command economy.…

Modest Stocks Rebound Ends A Terrible Week

Modest Stocks Rebound - A Mini Recovery The stock market recovered on Friday after having two terrible days. In bull markets stocks recover slowly. In bear markets stocks recover quickly and then lose more value even quicker. Fiercest rallies are in bear markets because traders fall into the trap of thinking the bear market is…

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