Turkish Crisis Causes Modest Decline in U.S. Stocks

Turkish Crisis - Stocks Fall As Expected Turkish Crises, among other reasons led to the stock market falling as expected. Personally, I had been bearish on stocks in the near term because they were overbought according to the CNN Fear and Greed index. The S&P 500 fell 0.71% and the Nasdaq fell 0.67%. The VIX…

S&P 500 Fails To Reach New Record

S&P 500 Stocks Flat Again The S&P 500 has been within 1% of its record high for a few days. It still couldn’t break out on Thursday. It was down 0.14%. The Nasdaq was up 0.24% which means it extended its winning streak to 8 days which is its longest streak since October. Amazon stock…

Recession Not In Sight

Recession and Strong Jobless Claims Recession and jobless claims: the jobless claims report was strong again as claims fell from 219,000 to 213,000. Quite frankly, if you asked economists 3 years ago if such a report was possible, most would have said “no.” This cycle has seen record lows in the ratio between the labor…

China Increases Its Tariff Rate To 25%

China Tariff Dispute Intensifies Recently, China announced it will retaliate against America’s latest round of tariffs against it. Also, China will put a 25% tariff on $16 billion worth of American products. These 333 goods include large passenger cars, motorcycles, various fuels, and fiber optic cables. China is also taxing coal, grease, Vaseline, asphalt, plastic…

Consumer Spending Up, While Leverage Modest

Consumer Spending - Stocks Not Overhyped Consumer spending is up. Whether stocks are showing signs of exhaustion depends on which indicator you review. The CNN Fear and Greed index makes me cautious about stocks in relation to consumer spending, but the Investor Movement Index seen in the chart below shows investors are still cautious. TD…

Greed Increases; Stocks Less Than 1% Away From Record High

The Greed Is Palpable Greed is increasing at an alarming rate. The S&P 500 was up 0.28% and the VIX was down 3.02% to 10.93 on Tuesday. The S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 are less than 1% away from their record highs. Just as the market is getting close to its record high, it is…

Toys R Us & Government Hurt Great Jobs Report

Toys R Us Bankruptcy Makes Report Look Bad Toys R Us bankruptcy skewed the jobs report. There are many other details which show this report was better than the headline number suggests. The most prominent one time negative impact was the Toys R Us bankruptcy. This caused the sporting goods, hobby, book, and music store…

Bull Market - Weeks Away From Longest Since WWII

Bull Market - Longest Wave Since WWII Bull market investors are riding the wave of great earnings reports and improving estimates which aren’t being hampered by fears of a trade war or fears of an economic slowdown. Weakening ISM and Markit services reports aren’t enough to worry investors. It’s easy to ignore them when forward…

Business Optimism At A 6 Month Low?

Weakening PMI Services Index After reviewing the non-manufacturing ISM report, you must be wondering about the stability of this recovery. Is it possible that the services index is signaling a slowdown in the 2nd half of the year? Reviewing the July Markit services report will help us find out if the ISM was a fluke…

Tariffs To Add $1,800 To The Sticker Price Of Toyota Camry

Weakening ISM Manufacturing Report The ISM Manufacturing PMI was 58.1 which missed estimates for 59.5 and was below the prior report of 60.2. Even though this report missed estimates, it was exactly in line with what I thought would be reported because I looked at the regional Fed reports. They implied a PMI of 58.…

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