Rally On For Now

The stock market rally continued Thursday. It feels like a big correction is happening because every index isn’t hitting new all-time highs (only the Dow hit a new high). Making up for this, Bitcoin is hitting a new all-time high. There was a CNBC article today explaining how this may be bullish for stocks. Anything…

French Election: Bayrou Endorses Macron

The French election is like a combination of the GOP primary and the general election because there are many candidates and it has the pressure of a general election. I will provide update articles whenever the election shifts. It seems like it is shifting by the minute which means I have more to discuss. The…

Fed Minutes- No Change In Policy

Wednesday the Fed released its Minutes which is the Fed’s updated view of various markets, the economy, and its thoughts on the possibility of rate hikes or cuts. Lately the Fed hasn’t been in focus nearly as much as it once was. Ever since Alan Greenspan, who was described as the ‘maestro’, the Fed has…

Le Pen Gaining Ground

The equities market is in such a hyper bullish mode, it is no longer a surprise to see the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow, New York Stock Exchange, and Russell 2000 all hitting all-time closing highs simultaneously. Amazon, Apple, and Goldman Sachs also all hit new all-time highs. Even with this broad-based rally, the VIX was…

Is Market Euphoria Finally Here?

Euphoria is tough to respond to as an investor. A cursory look at the market in times of enhanced excitement would make you think euphoria is great because the market is going up. Anyone who is long the market is making a boat load of money regardless of what stocks he/she owns. When optimism is…

Political Risks Facing Equities (Le Pen & Debt Ceiling)

In this article, I will review the political risks facing the market. The two most pressing issues facing the market are the French presidential election and the potential issues surrounding the debt ceiling in America. Both have the potential to cause volatility in the equities market if they turn out to have unforeseen outcomes. The…

The Hope That Tax Reform Gets Passed In 2017

In this article, I will discuss the critical lever which will determine where the stock market will go in the next 3 months. There is a big difference between survey data and hard data. When the survey data initially improved in December, I was skeptical of it because of the size of the pop. For…

How Expensive Do Stocks Have To Be For It To Matter?

In this article, I will review possible flaws in using valuation metrics and defend why they are important. I think some bullish investors make a critical error when they blindly discount valuations. There is a bias against valuations that tends to get built in over time when investors hear for years that stocks are overvalued…

The Auto Loan Market Seems Weak

This article will describe the two recent trends I’m noticing in the economy. Then I will refute part of a list of arguments made against using the Shiller PE as a reason to have a cautious stance when analyzing stocks. The first trend is related to the auto loan bubble; sales look like they topping.…

The Scariest Chart Ever?

Wednesday was an abnormal day for the market because the VIX rallied along with the S&P 500. It was only the 4th day in history where the VIX was up over 10% and the S&P 500 also closed positive. The chart below shows what the inverse of the VIX looked like before Wednesday. Savvy investors…

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