Traders Scared - It’s Time To Buy Stocks

Traders Scared - Stocks Crater Friday Stocks were hit on Friday because of worries about poor Chinese retail sales and industrial production growth. This caused the S&P 500 to fall 1.91%. That's a big deal because it fell below the November low. It is now at its lowest point since May. S&P 500 closed at…

Regional Banks Hit New Lows

Regional Banks - Small Caps Crater On Thursday S&P 500 was nearly flat as it only fell 2 basis points. It is still near the February low as it will likely remain in a tight range until tangible news about the trade war comes out and the Fed updates its 2019 guidance. VIX was down…

Bears - Most Since 2013

Bears - Mom & Pop Investors Are Nervous Investor sentiment is terrible. That's a good indicator stocks will do well in the intermediate term unless the fundamentals crater. About 50% of retail investors think the stock market will be lower in the next 6 months. Even though some bears claim investors are always buying the…

Small Business Optimism Falls

Small Business Confidence Falters Volatility in the stock market combined with the political bias in the survey caused the NFIB small business optimism index to fall from 107.4 to 104.8. You can see this in the chart below. This report missed estimates for 107 and the low end of the consensus range which was 105.5.…

Dollar Index Might Be Near Its Peak

Dollar Index - Stocks Finally Rally Wednesday The S&P 500 opened up big, but gave back some of its gains in the afternoon. It closed up 0.54%. From the peak of the day to the close, it fell 1.26%. This market wants to rally. But there is so much uncertainty about the trade war with…

Stocks Vacillate Sharply, But Stay Above The February Low

Stocks Vacillate - Very Volatile Tuesday Volatile swings continued Tuesday as the S&P 500 opened up big. Then it gave back all the gains and fell. Next it rallied a bit more, and finally closed down 0.04%. At the morning peak, the S&P 500 was up 1.3%. From the morning peak to the afternoon trough, the…

Consumer Discretionary Stocks Signal A Recession Isn’t Coming

Consumer Discretionary Stocks Tell the Future The relative performance of consumer discretionary sector gives us an indicator where the economy is headed. As you can see from the chart below, the consumer discretionary sector has outperformed the S&P 500 as of September 30th. That suggests a recession isn’t coming soon. The chart shows relative outperformance…

Stocks Are The Cheapest Since The Beginning Of 2016

Stocks - Another Day With Wild Swings Wild swings in the stock market where big losses turn into gains aren’t necessarily positive. They signal the heightened volatility environment is continuing rather than that stocks are ready to rally. Monday was another day with big swings as the S&P 500 fell 1.83% in the morning before…

Full Employment To Be Reached In 2020

Full Employment - Labor Market Filling Up Don’t use the stock market’s reaction on Friday as a litmus test for the strength of the November labor report because the market has been very volatile. Job creation was a slightly disappointing. It might indicate the labor market is near full employment. Overall labor force participation rate…

Stocks Crater As Extreme Fear Sweeps Wall Street

Stocks Crater - Volatile Friday The stock market cratered Friday morning. Unlike Thursday, the market didn’t recover as the S&P 500 fell 2.33%. Nasdaq fell 3.05% after outperforming Thursday. Russell 2000 fell 1.98%. I have forgotten to mention one reason the Russell 2000 has been falling rapidly in the past couple months is because it…

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